Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers

Abstract

A major concern for the world’s ecosystems is the possibility of collapse,
where landscapes and the societies they support change abruptly.
Accelerating stress levels, increasing frequencies of extreme events
and strengthening intersystem connections suggest that conventional
modelling approaches based on incremental changes in a single stress may
provide poor estimates of the impact of climate and human activities on
ecosystems. We conduct experiments on four models that simulate abrupt
changes in the Chilika lagoon fishery, the Easter Island community, forest
dieback and lake water quality—representing ecosystems with a range of
anthropogenic interactions. Collapses occur sooner under increasing levels
of primary stress but additional stresses and/or the inclusion of noise in all
four models bring the collapses substantially closer to today by ~38–81%. We
discuss the implications for further research and the need for humanity to
be vigilant for signs that ecosystems are degrading even more rapidly than
previously thought.

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Identifiers

ORCID for John A. Dearing: orcid.org/0000-0002-1466-9640

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