Navigating uncertainty understanding the impact of Brexit on EU migration to the UK

Di Iasio, Valentina and Wahba, Jackline (2023) Navigating uncertainty understanding the impact of Brexit on EU migration to the UK ESRC Centre for Population Change 4pp.

Record type: Monograph (Project Report)

Abstract

How did the Brexit referendum in June 2016 affect the migration of people from EU countries to the United Kingdom? This policy briefing shares the results of a study that looked at the time immediately after the referendum and before the official exit. While the referendum’s result provided a mandate to leaving the EU, there was no clear agreement on the future relationship between the UK and the EU. This created a period of uncertainty about what the migration policy would be after Brexit, which lasted until the actual withdrawal in January 2020.
During this waiting period, both potential EU immigrants planning to move to the UK and EU nationals already living in the UK were unsure about the specific rights they would have once the UK left the EU. This represented a significant negative shock given that EU nationals had enjoyed similar rights to UK citizens and the freedom to move between countries, which had led to a large increase in EU immigration to the UK since 2004. In fact, EU immigrants made up 5.5% of the total UK population at the time of the referendum, so examining how the Brexit referendum and subsequent uncertainty affected the migration of EU citizens to the UK is vital.

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