When green recovery fails to consider coal pushback: exploring global coal rebounds, production, and policy retrenchment post Covid-19

Abstract

The global green recovery is facing a significant threat due to the escalating consumption of coal and the announcement of new coal development plans by several leading nations. This study presents an overview of post-pandemic coal activities and identifies three types of coal rebound, namely coal use rebound, coal production or power plant expansion, and climate change policy retrenchments, that pose a challenge to global green recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. We delve into the major short-term and long-term factors that underlie the coal rebound by analyzing case studies from eight countries, namely Vietnam, Zimbabwe, China, India, the United States, Germany, Australia, and Indonesia. The findings indicate that in the short-run, energy price volatility induced by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical crises are the primary factors driving the coal rebound in most countries. We also highlight that the climate-induced coal rebound due to extreme weather could backfire and emerge as a major short-term factor to impede decarbonization efforts. This round of coal rebounds can be attributed to several long-term factors, including the anticipated economic growth in phase-in and established countries, the abundance of coal endowment, the reliance on the coal economy resulting from it, the political influence of coal sectors, the resurgence of geopolitics, and concerns around energy security. It is noteworthy that the return of geopolitics is likely to impact the energy transition for decades to come. The study provides policy recommendations to mitigate coal rebound and enhance the post-pandemic green recovery.

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