Probabilistic margin assessment of aircraft conceptual design using a modified reliability based design optimization methodology

Yuan, Jie, Savill, M., Kipouros, T., Coggon, S. and Scarpa, F. (2016) Probabilistic margin assessment of aircraft conceptual design using a modified reliability based design optimization methodology. Sas, Paul, Moens, David and van de Walle, Axel (eds.) In Proceedings of ISMA 2016 - International Conference on Noise and Vibration Engineering and USD2016 - International Conference on Uncertainty in Structural Dynamics. pp. 4463-4477 .

Abstract

The work proposes a Modified Reliability Based Design Optimization (MRBDO) methodology for assessing margins assigned to uncertain parameters during the aircraft conceptual design. The MRBDO approach consists in integrating the concept of margins into the traditional RBDO approach to identify optimized aircraft design while considering the constraint of a required confidence level of achieving performance targets. For the overall aircraft design, we consider stretching a civil medium-range aircraft with the uncertainties in structural weight, aerodynamic performance and propulsion system as a case study. The reliability index associated to the range of the aircraft is evaluated from the uncertainties of OWE, L/D and SFC perturbations. The case study shows that this MRBDO method can effectively determine the optimal safety factors of the aircraft design range for a pre-set confidence level. Compared to that using the classical approach, the maximum take-off weight of the aircraft is reduced by 3.3%.

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Contributors

Author: Jie Yuan

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