Uses of the skew-logistic function for multi-wave functions

Cheng, Russell and Williams, Brian (2023) Uses of the skew-logistic function for multi-wave functions. Currie, Christine and Rhodes-Leader, Luke (eds.) In Proceedings of the 11th Simulation Workshop, SW 2023. Operational Research Society. pp. 139-149 . (doi:10.36819/SW23.017).

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Abstract

The Skew-Logistic (SL) function has been proposed to model a real-life dynamic process which rises monotonically to a peak followed by a monotonic falling back. It was introduced to model the first stage of the Covid-19 pandemic to forecast its behaviour. Then, with different controls and variants, Covid-19 - rose and fell in what might be called a Multi-Wave (MW) behaviour; with waves not necessarily the same size. This paper shows how using the SL function for one wave can be easily modified to model the MW situation. We apply it to two examples. One is to Covid-19, to examine its most recent behaviour. We also apply it to climate change, the most serious issue of our time. Ensuring that the world simply achieves carbon-equality is not enough. We have to rapidly achieve carbon-negativity to prevent bringing an end to the known world.

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