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Global and zonal-mean hydrological response to early Eocene warmth

Global and zonal-mean hydrological response to early Eocene warmth
Global and zonal-mean hydrological response to early Eocene warmth
Earth's hydrological cycle is expected to intensify in response to global warming, with a “wet-gets-wetter, dry-gets-drier” response anticipated over the ocean. Subtropical regions (∼15°–30°N/S) are predicted to become drier, yet proxy evidence from past warm climates suggests these regions may be characterized by wetter conditions. Here we use an integrated data-modeling approach to reconstruct global and zonal-mean rainfall patterns during the early Eocene (∼56–48 million years ago). The Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) model ensemble indicates that the mid- (30°–60°N/S) and high-latitudes (>60°N/S) are characterized by a thermodynamically dominated hydrological response to warming and overall wetter conditions. The tropical band (0°–15°N/S) is also characterized by wetter conditions, with several DeepMIP models simulating narrowing of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. However, the latter is not evident from the proxy data. The subtropics are characterized by negative precipitation-evaporation anomalies (i.e., drier conditions) in the DeepMIP models, but there is surprisingly large inter-model variability in mean annual precipitation (MAP). Intriguingly, we find that models with weaker meridional temperature gradients (e.g., CESM, GFDL) are characterized by a reduction in subtropical moisture divergence, leading to an increase in MAP. These model simulations agree more closely with our new proxy-derived precipitation reconstructions and other key climate metrics and imply that the early Eocene was characterized by reduced subtropical moisture divergence. If the meridional temperature gradient was even weaker than suggested by those DeepMIP models, circulation-induced changes may have outcompeted thermodynamic changes, leading to wetter subtropics. This highlights the importance of accurately reconstructing zonal temperature gradients when reconstructing past rainfall patterns.
DeepMIP, Eocene, Paleocene, evaporation, hydrology, precipitation
2572-4525
Cramwinckel, Margot J
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Burls, Natalie
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Fahad, Abdullah
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Knapp, Scott
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West, Christopher
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Reichgelt, Tammo
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Greenwood, David
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Chan, Wing-Le
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Donnadieu, Yannick
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Hutchinson, David K.
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de Boer, Agatha
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Ladant, Jean-baptiste
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Morozova, Polina
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Niezgodzki, Igor
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Knorr, Gregor
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Steinig, Sebastian
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Zhang, Zhongshi
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Zhu, Jiang
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Feng, Ran
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Lunt, Daniel J.
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Abe-ouchi, Ayako
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Inglis, Gordon
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Cramwinckel, Margot J
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Burls, Natalie
b87b6392-74a9-47dc-bccb-15e454f70e2f
Fahad, Abdullah
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Knapp, Scott
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West, Christopher
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Reichgelt, Tammo
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Greenwood, David
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Chan, Wing-Le
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Donnadieu, Yannick
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Hutchinson, David K.
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de Boer, Agatha
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Ladant, Jean-baptiste
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Morozova, Polina
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Niezgodzki, Igor
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Knorr, Gregor
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Steinig, Sebastian
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Zhang, Zhongshi
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Zhu, Jiang
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Feng, Ran
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Lunt, Daniel J.
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Abe-ouchi, Ayako
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Inglis, Gordon
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Cramwinckel, Margot J, Burls, Natalie, Fahad, Abdullah, Knapp, Scott, West, Christopher, Reichgelt, Tammo, Greenwood, David, Chan, Wing-Le, Donnadieu, Yannick, Hutchinson, David K., de Boer, Agatha, Ladant, Jean-baptiste, Morozova, Polina, Niezgodzki, Igor, Knorr, Gregor, Steinig, Sebastian, Zhang, Zhongshi, Zhu, Jiang, Feng, Ran, Lunt, Daniel J., Abe-ouchi, Ayako and Inglis, Gordon (2023) Global and zonal-mean hydrological response to early Eocene warmth. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 38 (6), [e2022PA004542]. (doi:10.1029/2022PA004542).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Earth's hydrological cycle is expected to intensify in response to global warming, with a “wet-gets-wetter, dry-gets-drier” response anticipated over the ocean. Subtropical regions (∼15°–30°N/S) are predicted to become drier, yet proxy evidence from past warm climates suggests these regions may be characterized by wetter conditions. Here we use an integrated data-modeling approach to reconstruct global and zonal-mean rainfall patterns during the early Eocene (∼56–48 million years ago). The Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) model ensemble indicates that the mid- (30°–60°N/S) and high-latitudes (>60°N/S) are characterized by a thermodynamically dominated hydrological response to warming and overall wetter conditions. The tropical band (0°–15°N/S) is also characterized by wetter conditions, with several DeepMIP models simulating narrowing of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. However, the latter is not evident from the proxy data. The subtropics are characterized by negative precipitation-evaporation anomalies (i.e., drier conditions) in the DeepMIP models, but there is surprisingly large inter-model variability in mean annual precipitation (MAP). Intriguingly, we find that models with weaker meridional temperature gradients (e.g., CESM, GFDL) are characterized by a reduction in subtropical moisture divergence, leading to an increase in MAP. These model simulations agree more closely with our new proxy-derived precipitation reconstructions and other key climate metrics and imply that the early Eocene was characterized by reduced subtropical moisture divergence. If the meridional temperature gradient was even weaker than suggested by those DeepMIP models, circulation-induced changes may have outcompeted thermodynamic changes, leading to wetter subtropics. This highlights the importance of accurately reconstructing zonal temperature gradients when reconstructing past rainfall patterns.

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Cramwinckel 2023 resubmitted - Accepted Manuscript
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Paleoceanog and Paleoclimatol - 2023 - Cramwinckel - Global and Zonal‐Mean Hydrological Response to Early Eocene Warmth - Version of Record
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Accepted/In Press date: 25 May 2023
e-pub ahead of print date: 13 June 2023
Published date: June 2023
Additional Information: Funding Information: G.N.I was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship (DHF\R1\191178). G.N.I. was also supported by additional funds from the Royal Society (DHF\ERE\210068). N.J.B. was supported by the National Science Foundation, via award AGS‐1844380. D. G was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) through Discovery Grants (DG 311934 and 2016‐04337). C.K.W acknowledges funding from a private donor to the Northern Climates Postdoctoral Fellowship at the University of Alberta. D.K.H acknowledges support from Australian Research Council grant DE22010079 and the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, project number SR200100008. R.F is supported by NSF‐2114204. A.dB was supported by Swedish Research Council project 2020‐04791. The GFDL simulations were performed by resources provided by the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at the National Supercomputer Centre (NSC), partially funded by the Swedish Research Council through Grant agreement 2018‐05973. W.L.C and A.A.O acknowledge funding from JSPS KAKENHI (Grant 17H06104) and MEXT KAKENHI (Grant 17H06323). The CESM project is supported primarily by the National Science Foundation (NSF); this material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement 1852977. Funding Information: G.N.I was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship (DHF\R1\191178). G.N.I. was also supported by additional funds from the Royal Society (DHF\ERE\210068). N.J.B. was supported by the National Science Foundation, via award AGS-1844380. D. G was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) through Discovery Grants (DG 311934 and 2016-04337). C.K.W acknowledges funding from a private donor to the Northern Climates Postdoctoral Fellowship at the University of Alberta. D.K.H acknowledges support from Australian Research Council grant DE22010079 and the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, project number SR200100008. R.F is supported by NSF-2114204. A.dB was supported by Swedish Research Council project 2020-04791. The GFDL simulations were performed by resources provided by the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at the National Supercomputer Centre (NSC), partially funded by the Swedish Research Council through Grant agreement 2018-05973. W.L.C and A.A.O acknowledge funding from JSPS KAKENHI (Grant 17H06104) and MEXT KAKENHI (Grant 17H06323). The CESM project is supported primarily by the National Science Foundation (NSF); this material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement 1852977. Publisher Copyright: © 2023. The Authors.
Keywords: DeepMIP, Eocene, Paleocene, evaporation, hydrology, precipitation

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 480348
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/480348
ISSN: 2572-4525
PURE UUID: 16352cc1-0f16-482f-9f22-e3311e861f35
ORCID for Margot J Cramwinckel: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-6063-836X
ORCID for Gordon Inglis: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-0032-4668

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 01 Aug 2023 17:47
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 04:00

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Contributors

Author: Margot J Cramwinckel ORCID iD
Author: Natalie Burls
Author: Abdullah Fahad
Author: Scott Knapp
Author: Christopher West
Author: Tammo Reichgelt
Author: David Greenwood
Author: Wing-Le Chan
Author: Yannick Donnadieu
Author: David K. Hutchinson
Author: Agatha de Boer
Author: Jean-baptiste Ladant
Author: Polina Morozova
Author: Igor Niezgodzki
Author: Gregor Knorr
Author: Sebastian Steinig
Author: Zhongshi Zhang
Author: Jiang Zhu
Author: Ran Feng
Author: Daniel J. Lunt
Author: Ayako Abe-ouchi
Author: Gordon Inglis ORCID iD

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