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Changes in drought risk over the contiguous United States (1901-2012): the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

Changes in drought risk over the contiguous United States (1901-2012): the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans
Changes in drought risk over the contiguous United States (1901-2012): the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

We assess uncertainties in the influence of sea surface temperatures on annual meteorological droughts over the contiguous U.S. within a Bayesian approach. Observational data for 1901-2012 indicate that a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) elevated annual drought risk over the southern U.S., such that the 4 year return period event becomes a 3 year event, while a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has a weak influence. In recent decades, the impacts of the negative phases of the PDO and ENSO on U.S. drought have weakened and shifted toward the southwestern U.S. These changes indicate an increasing of role of atmospheric variability on the U.S. drought overall with implications for long-term changes in drought and the potential for seasonal forecasting.

0094-8276
5897-5903
Kam, Jonghun
2ca1444e-be4f-4250-9fa5-c5b9dca224fe
Sheffield, Justin
dd66575b-a4dc-4190-ad95-df2d6aaaaa6b
Wood, Eric F.
ee59ebb9-367e-48ce-beab-22666be5095d
Kam, Jonghun
2ca1444e-be4f-4250-9fa5-c5b9dca224fe
Sheffield, Justin
dd66575b-a4dc-4190-ad95-df2d6aaaaa6b
Wood, Eric F.
ee59ebb9-367e-48ce-beab-22666be5095d

Kam, Jonghun, Sheffield, Justin and Wood, Eric F. (2014) Changes in drought risk over the contiguous United States (1901-2012): the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (16), 5897-5903. (doi:10.1002/2014GL060973).

Record type: Article

Abstract

We assess uncertainties in the influence of sea surface temperatures on annual meteorological droughts over the contiguous U.S. within a Bayesian approach. Observational data for 1901-2012 indicate that a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) elevated annual drought risk over the southern U.S., such that the 4 year return period event becomes a 3 year event, while a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has a weak influence. In recent decades, the impacts of the negative phases of the PDO and ENSO on U.S. drought have weakened and shifted toward the southwestern U.S. These changes indicate an increasing of role of atmospheric variability on the U.S. drought overall with implications for long-term changes in drought and the potential for seasonal forecasting.

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More information

Published date: 28 August 2014
Additional Information: Publisher Copyright: © 2014. American Geophysical Union.

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 480783
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/480783
ISSN: 0094-8276
PURE UUID: e05a5dd9-5b90-4821-98df-69aadb557d5c
ORCID for Justin Sheffield: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-2400-0630

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Date deposited: 09 Aug 2023 17:13
Last modified: 06 Jun 2024 01:54

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Contributors

Author: Jonghun Kam
Author: Eric F. Wood

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