Global warming and changes in drought
Global warming and changes in drought
Several recently published studies have produced apparently conflicting results of how drought is changing under climate change. The reason is thought to lie in the formulation of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the data sets used to determine the evapotranspiration component. Here, we make an assessment of the issues with the PDSI in which several other sources of discrepancy emerge, not least how precipitation has changed and is analysed. As well as an improvement in the precipitation data available, accurate attribution of the causes of drought requires accounting for natural variability, especially El Niño/Southern Oscillation effects, owing to the predilection for wetter land during La Niña events. Increased heating from global warming may not cause droughts but it is expected that when droughts occur they are likely to set in quicker and be more intense.
17-22
Trenberth, Kevin E.
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Dai, Aiguo
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Van Der Schrier, Gerard
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Jones, Philip D.
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Barichivich, Jonathan
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Briffa, Keith R.
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Sheffield, Justin
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January 2014
Trenberth, Kevin E.
c47a02d7-d76a-4023-8323-05164a5a3126
Dai, Aiguo
51ba97ef-d718-4ca6-ba11-5cf5c6873825
Van Der Schrier, Gerard
ef1565d7-9dec-4385-8440-19e6165752c7
Jones, Philip D.
d10b76ff-3e6a-4753-aca3-e2c728167e43
Barichivich, Jonathan
7e85d6b2-1026-4799-a08b-7cfb1b27bf15
Briffa, Keith R.
d94d50e3-ef3c-4ae6-9ec4-1e201aad79f2
Sheffield, Justin
dd66575b-a4dc-4190-ad95-df2d6aaaaa6b
Trenberth, Kevin E., Dai, Aiguo, Van Der Schrier, Gerard, Jones, Philip D., Barichivich, Jonathan, Briffa, Keith R. and Sheffield, Justin
(2014)
Global warming and changes in drought.
Nature Climate Change, 4 (1), .
(doi:10.1038/nclimate2067).
Abstract
Several recently published studies have produced apparently conflicting results of how drought is changing under climate change. The reason is thought to lie in the formulation of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the data sets used to determine the evapotranspiration component. Here, we make an assessment of the issues with the PDSI in which several other sources of discrepancy emerge, not least how precipitation has changed and is analysed. As well as an improvement in the precipitation data available, accurate attribution of the causes of drought requires accounting for natural variability, especially El Niño/Southern Oscillation effects, owing to the predilection for wetter land during La Niña events. Increased heating from global warming may not cause droughts but it is expected that when droughts occur they are likely to set in quicker and be more intense.
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Published date: January 2014
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. P.D.J. has been supported by the US Department of Energy (Grant DE-SC0005689). K.R.B. acknowledges support from UK NERC (NE/G018863/1).
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 480787
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/480787
ISSN: 1758-678X
PURE UUID: 27c10715-1ccb-43d6-90ae-1a3c322cecf2
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Date deposited: 09 Aug 2023 17:13
Last modified: 18 Mar 2024 03:33
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Contributors
Author:
Kevin E. Trenberth
Author:
Aiguo Dai
Author:
Gerard Van Der Schrier
Author:
Philip D. Jones
Author:
Jonathan Barichivich
Author:
Keith R. Briffa
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