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The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios

The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios
The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios

The United States is the largest producer of maize in the world, a crop for which demand continues to rise rapidly. Past studies have projected that climate change will negatively impact mean maize yields in this region, while at the same time increasing yield variability. However, some have questioned the accuracy of these projections because they are often based on indirect measures of soil moisture, have failed to explicitly capture the potential interactions between temperature and soil moisture availability, and often omit the beneficial effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) on transpiration efficiency. Here we use a new detailed dataset on field-level yields in Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois, along with fine-resolution daily weather data and moisture reconstructions, to evaluate the combined effects of moisture and heat on maize yields in the region. Projected climate change scenarios over this region from a suite of CMIP5 models are then used to assess future impacts and the differences between two contrasting emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We show that (i) statistical models which explicitly account for interactions between heat and moisture, which have not been represented in previous empirical models, lead to significant model improvement and significantly higher projected yield variability under warming and drying trends than when accounting for each factor independently; (ii) inclusion of the benefits of elevated CO2 significantly reduces impacts, particularly for yield variability; and (iii) net damages from climate change and CO2 become larger for the higher emission scenario in the latter half of the 21st century, and significantly so by the end of century.

drought, emission scenarios, heat stress, water demand, water use efficiency, yield variability
1748-9318
Urban, Daniel W.
925dd9e4-3b5b-4210-88e1-4a0ba11c8f18
Sheffield, Justin
dd66575b-a4dc-4190-ad95-df2d6aaaaa6b
Lobell, David B.
a4a4bf2a-a4ea-4f13-90c0-ab22a92a1f5c
Urban, Daniel W.
925dd9e4-3b5b-4210-88e1-4a0ba11c8f18
Sheffield, Justin
dd66575b-a4dc-4190-ad95-df2d6aaaaa6b
Lobell, David B.
a4a4bf2a-a4ea-4f13-90c0-ab22a92a1f5c

Urban, Daniel W., Sheffield, Justin and Lobell, David B. (2015) The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios. Environmental Research Letters, 10 (4), [045003]. (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/045003).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The United States is the largest producer of maize in the world, a crop for which demand continues to rise rapidly. Past studies have projected that climate change will negatively impact mean maize yields in this region, while at the same time increasing yield variability. However, some have questioned the accuracy of these projections because they are often based on indirect measures of soil moisture, have failed to explicitly capture the potential interactions between temperature and soil moisture availability, and often omit the beneficial effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) on transpiration efficiency. Here we use a new detailed dataset on field-level yields in Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois, along with fine-resolution daily weather data and moisture reconstructions, to evaluate the combined effects of moisture and heat on maize yields in the region. Projected climate change scenarios over this region from a suite of CMIP5 models are then used to assess future impacts and the differences between two contrasting emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We show that (i) statistical models which explicitly account for interactions between heat and moisture, which have not been represented in previous empirical models, lead to significant model improvement and significantly higher projected yield variability under warming and drying trends than when accounting for each factor independently; (ii) inclusion of the benefits of elevated CO2 significantly reduces impacts, particularly for yield variability; and (iii) net damages from climate change and CO2 become larger for the higher emission scenario in the latter half of the 21st century, and significantly so by the end of century.

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More information

Published date: 1 April 2015
Additional Information: Publisher Copyright: © 2015 IOP Publishing Ltd.
Keywords: drought, emission scenarios, heat stress, water demand, water use efficiency, yield variability

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 480795
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/480795
ISSN: 1748-9318
PURE UUID: 069fddcb-06ed-47d3-b00f-3a8c6864b643
ORCID for Justin Sheffield: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-2400-0630

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Date deposited: 09 Aug 2023 17:14
Last modified: 06 Jun 2024 01:54

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Contributors

Author: Daniel W. Urban
Author: David B. Lobell

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