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Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply

Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply
Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply

More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and to alter evapotranspiration, with implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration changes may already be under way, but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, changes in the water cycle on land-a key diagnostic criterion of the effects of climate change and variability-remain uncertain. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of global land evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2008, compiled using a global monitoring network, meteorological and remote-sensing observations, and a machine-learning algorithm. In addition, we have assessed evapotranspiration variations over the same time period using an ensemble of process-based land-surface models. Our results suggest that global annual evapotranspiration increased on average by 7.1 ± 1.0 millimetres per year per decade from 1982 to 1997. After that, coincident with the last major El Ni±o event in 1998, the global evapotranspiration increase seems to have ceased until 2008. This change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil-moisture limitations on evapotranspiration largely explain the recent decline of the global land-evapotranspiration trend. Whether the changing behaviour of evapotranspiration is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of the land water cycle is a key question for earth system science.

0028-0836
951-954
Jung, Martin
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Reichstein, Markus
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Ciais, Philippe
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Seneviratne, Sonia I.
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Sheffield, Justin
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Goulden, Michael L.
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Bonan, Gordon
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Cescatti, Alessandro
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Chen, Jiquan
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De Jeu, Richard
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Dolman, A. Johannes
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Eugster, Werner
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Gerten, Dieter
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Gianelle, Damiano
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Gobron, Nadine
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Heinke, Jens
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Kimball, John
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Law, Beverly E.
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Montagnani, Leonardo
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Mu, Qiaozhen
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Mueller, Brigitte
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Oleson, Keith
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Papale, Dario
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Richardson, Andrew D.
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Roupsard, Olivier
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Running, Steve
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Tomelleri, Enrico
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Viovy, Nicolas
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Weber, Ulrich
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Williams, Christopher
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Wood, Eric
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Zaehle, Sönke
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Zhang, Ke
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Jung, Martin
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Reichstein, Markus
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Ciais, Philippe
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Seneviratne, Sonia I.
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Sheffield, Justin
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Goulden, Michael L.
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Bonan, Gordon
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Cescatti, Alessandro
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Chen, Jiquan
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De Jeu, Richard
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Dolman, A. Johannes
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Eugster, Werner
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Gerten, Dieter
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Gianelle, Damiano
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Gobron, Nadine
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Heinke, Jens
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Kimball, John
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Law, Beverly E.
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Montagnani, Leonardo
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Mu, Qiaozhen
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Mueller, Brigitte
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Oleson, Keith
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Papale, Dario
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Richardson, Andrew D.
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Roupsard, Olivier
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Running, Steve
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Tomelleri, Enrico
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Viovy, Nicolas
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Weber, Ulrich
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Williams, Christopher
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Wood, Eric
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Zaehle, Sönke
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Zhang, Ke
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Jung, Martin, Reichstein, Markus, Ciais, Philippe, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Sheffield, Justin, Goulden, Michael L., Bonan, Gordon, Cescatti, Alessandro, Chen, Jiquan, De Jeu, Richard, Dolman, A. Johannes, Eugster, Werner, Gerten, Dieter, Gianelle, Damiano, Gobron, Nadine, Heinke, Jens, Kimball, John, Law, Beverly E., Montagnani, Leonardo, Mu, Qiaozhen, Mueller, Brigitte, Oleson, Keith, Papale, Dario, Richardson, Andrew D., Roupsard, Olivier, Running, Steve, Tomelleri, Enrico, Viovy, Nicolas, Weber, Ulrich, Williams, Christopher, Wood, Eric, Zaehle, Sönke and Zhang, Ke (2010) Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply. Nature, 467 (7318), 951-954. (doi:10.1038/nature09396).

Record type: Article

Abstract

More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and to alter evapotranspiration, with implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration changes may already be under way, but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, changes in the water cycle on land-a key diagnostic criterion of the effects of climate change and variability-remain uncertain. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of global land evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2008, compiled using a global monitoring network, meteorological and remote-sensing observations, and a machine-learning algorithm. In addition, we have assessed evapotranspiration variations over the same time period using an ensemble of process-based land-surface models. Our results suggest that global annual evapotranspiration increased on average by 7.1 ± 1.0 millimetres per year per decade from 1982 to 1997. After that, coincident with the last major El Ni±o event in 1998, the global evapotranspiration increase seems to have ceased until 2008. This change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil-moisture limitations on evapotranspiration largely explain the recent decline of the global land-evapotranspiration trend. Whether the changing behaviour of evapotranspiration is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of the land water cycle is a key question for earth system science.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 10 October 2010
Published date: 21 October 2010
Additional Information: Funding Information: Acknowledgements This work used eddy covariance data acquired by the FLUXNET community and in particular by the following networks: AmeriFlux (US Department of Energy, Biological and Environmental Research, Terrestrial Carbon Program; DE-FG02-04ER63917 and DE-FG02-04ER63911), AfriFlux, AsiaFlux, CarboAfrica, CarboEuropeIP, CarboItaly, CarboMont, ChinaFlux, Fluxnet-Canada (supported by the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, BIOCAP, Environment Canada and Natural Resources Canada), GreenGrass, KoFlux, the Largescale Biosphere–Atmosphere Experiment inAmazonia,theNordicCentrefor Studies ofEcosystemCarbonExchange, OzFlux, the Terrestrial Carbon Observatory System Siberia and US–China Carbon Consortium. We acknowledge the support to the eddy covariance data harmonization provided by CarboEuropeIP; the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ Global Terrestrial Observing System Terrestrial Carbon Observations; the Integrated Land Ecosystem–Atmosphere Processes Study, a core project of the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme; the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry; the National Science Foundation; the University of Tuscia; Université Laval; Environment Canada; and the US Department of Energy. We acknowledge database development and technical support from Berkeley Water Center, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Microsoft Research eScience, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley and University of Virginia. We thank the members of FLUXNET (http://www.fluxdata.org/DataInfo) for their help with the data on this work. TRMM soil moisture retrievals and analysis were supported by the European Union (FP6) funded integrated project called WATCH (contract number 036946)thatsupportedA.J.D.and R.d.J.M.J.andM.R. were supportedbythe European Union (FP7) integrated project COMBINE (number 226520) and a grant from the Max-Planck Society establishing the MPRG Biogeochemical Model-Data Integration. C.W. was supported by the US National Science Foundation under grant ATM-0910766. D.P. acknowledges the support of the Euro–Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change. We acknowledge institutions and projects for free access to relevant data: the Global Runoff Data Centre, the Global Soil Wetness Project 2, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, the Global Historical Climatology Network, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the University of East Anglia, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 480880
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/480880
ISSN: 0028-0836
PURE UUID: d7a27c52-8a49-4168-9140-69a2ee7509cb
ORCID for Justin Sheffield: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-2400-0630
ORCID for Andrew D. Richardson: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-1805-7393

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Date deposited: 10 Aug 2023 16:41
Last modified: 18 Mar 2024 03:33

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Contributors

Author: Martin Jung
Author: Markus Reichstein
Author: Philippe Ciais
Author: Sonia I. Seneviratne
Author: Michael L. Goulden
Author: Gordon Bonan
Author: Alessandro Cescatti
Author: Jiquan Chen
Author: Richard De Jeu
Author: A. Johannes Dolman
Author: Werner Eugster
Author: Dieter Gerten
Author: Damiano Gianelle
Author: Nadine Gobron
Author: Jens Heinke
Author: John Kimball
Author: Beverly E. Law
Author: Leonardo Montagnani
Author: Qiaozhen Mu
Author: Brigitte Mueller
Author: Keith Oleson
Author: Dario Papale
Author: Olivier Roupsard
Author: Steve Running
Author: Enrico Tomelleri
Author: Nicolas Viovy
Author: Ulrich Weber
Author: Christopher Williams
Author: Eric Wood
Author: Sönke Zaehle
Author: Ke Zhang

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