Could we have seen it coming? Towards an early warning system for asylum applications in the EU

Barker, Emily R. and Bijak, Jakub (2023) Could we have seen it coming? Towards an early warning system for asylum applications in the EU 30pp.

Record type: Monograph (Working Paper)

Abstract

Forecasting large changes in the numbers of asylum applications, an element of so-called asylum `crises', is challenging. In this paper, we present a model that shows that the warning signs of a crisis could appear in publicly-available macroeconomic, geopolitical, and demographic data sources. Our aim is to propose and test an early warning system for asylum applications in the EU+ that would be easy to use, effective and interoperable for policy makers, and that would give sufficient advance warning that authorities can be prepared for an increase in the number of asylum applications up to six months in advance for two of the most prominent asylum flows from the recent decade, involving people fleeing the wars in Syria and in Ukraine.

Text

EB_JB_EWS_Sept2023 - Author's Original

Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.

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