On quantifying uncertainty in lightning strike damage of composite laminates: a hybrid stochastic framework of coupled transient thermal-electrical simulations

Abstract

Lightning strike damage can severely affect the thermo-mechanical performance of composite laminates. It is essential to quantify the effect of lightning strikes considering the inevitable influence of material and geometric uncertainties for ensuring the operational safety of aircraft. This paper presents an efficient support vector machine (SVM)-based surrogate approach coupled with computationally intensive transient thermal-electrical finite element simulations to quantify the uncertainty in lightning strike damage. The uncertainty in epoxy matrix thermal damage and electrical responses of unprotected carbon/epoxy composite laminates is probabilistically quantified considering the stochasticity in temperature-dependent multi-physical material properties and ply orientations. Further, the SVM models are exploited for variance-based global sensitivity analysis to investigate the input parameters' relative influence on the lightning strike-induced damage behavior. Due to the adoption of a coupled SVM-based simulation approach here, it has become possible to carry out a comprehensive uncertainty quantification leading to complete probabilistic descriptions of the electrical and lightning damage parameters despite the requirement of performing a large number of computationally intensive function evaluations. The results reveal that source-uncertainty of the unprotected laminates significantly influences the epoxy matrix decomposition, electrical current density and electric potential, wherein longitudinal electrical conductivity is most sensitive to stochastic variations followed by other electrical, thermal and geometric parameters.

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