A new tool for prioritising the risk of failure modes for marine machinery systems

Emovon, Ikuobase, Norman, Rosemary A. and Murphy, Alan J. (2014) A new tool for prioritising the risk of failure modes for marine machinery systems. In Structures, Safety and Reliability. vol. 4A, The American Society of Mechanical Engineers.. (doi:10.1115/OMAE2014-23267).

Abstract

Failure Mode Effect and Analysis (FMEA) is one of the most powerful techniques for performing risk analysis for marine machinery systems, with risk being quantified through evaluating Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) for all failure modes of the systems. The RPN is traditionally evaluated as the product of three risk criteria; occurrence (O), severity (S) and Detection (D). FMEA has several limitations such as the challenge of aggregating experts' risk criteria rating that may be imprecise or incomplete. In this paper some of the limitations in the conventional FMEA technique are addressed using two approaches; AVeraging technique integrated with conventional Risk Priority Number (AVRPN) and AVeraging technique integrated with TOPSIS (AVTOPSIS). Both proposed techniques use a novel approach simple average in aggregating imprecise experts' risk criteria ratings. A case study illustrates the suitability of both techniques for use in risk prioritisation jointly or independently as the results generated by both techniques are very similar. Furthermore, the AVRPN technique has been applied to an example from the literature and it has been demonstrated to be both computationally simple and capable of producing results which almost completely match those generated by modified Dempster-Shafer evidence theory techniques.

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