Eliciting expert judgement for the probability of AUV loss in contrasting operational environments

Abstract

Each time an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) is used in the sea there is a non-zero probability of loss. Quantifying probability of loss is not an exact science; therefore much depends on the fault history of the vehicle, the operational environment and the complex relationships between the consequences of faults or incidents and the environment. While this problem may be stated in scientific terms, in practice, there is no solution through scientific means alone. This is an example of ‘trans-science’. We suggest that an approach based on the formal process of eliciting expert judgement may be an effective means of approaching this problem, as the process has been used successfully for other trans-scientific questions. The paper provides an introduction to the process of eliciting expert judgement, outlines four exemplar environments: coastal, open water, under sea ice and under shelf ice, and gives a worked example of one expert’s judgement on the probability of loss in the four environments arising from a real fault with the Autosub1 AUV. Using the fault history of the Autosub3 AUV, included in the Annex, we ask experts from among UUST attendees (and others) to take part in this expert judgement elicitation. Based on the results of this elicitation we aim to publish a paper in the peer-reviewed literature.

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