Griffiths, G. and Trembanis, A.
Eliciting expert judgement for the probability of AUV loss in contrasting operational environments
In 15th International Symposium on Unmanned Untethered Submersible Technology (UUST 07).
Autonomous Undersea Systems Institute. 17 pp, .
Each time an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV)
is used in the sea there is a non-zero probability of
loss. Quantifying probability of loss is not an exact
science; therefore much depends on the fault history
of the vehicle, the operational environment and the
complex relationships between the consequences of
faults or incidents and the environment. While this
problem may be stated in scientific terms, in practice,
there is no solution through scientific means alone.
This is an example of ‘trans-science’. We suggest that
an approach based on the formal process of eliciting
expert judgement may be an effective means of
approaching this problem, as the process has been
used successfully for other trans-scientific questions.
The paper provides an introduction to the process of
eliciting expert judgement, outlines four exemplar
environments: coastal, open water, under sea ice and
under shelf ice, and gives a worked example of one
expert’s judgement on the probability of loss in the
four environments arising from a real fault with the
Autosub1 AUV. Using the fault history of the
Autosub3 AUV, included in the Annex, we ask
experts from among UUST attendees (and others) to
take part in this expert judgement elicitation. Based
on the results of this elicitation we aim to publish a
paper in the peer-reviewed literature.
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