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Eliciting expert judgement for the probability of AUV loss in contrasting operational environments

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Each time an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) is used in the sea there is a non-zero probability of loss. Quantifying probability of loss is not an exact science; therefore much depends on the fault history of the vehicle, the operational environment and the complex relationships between the consequences of faults or incidents and the environment. While this problem may be stated in scientific terms, in practice, there is no solution through scientific means alone. This is an example of ‘trans-science’. We suggest that an approach based on the formal process of eliciting expert judgement may be an effective means of approaching this problem, as the process has been used successfully for other trans-scientific questions. The paper provides an introduction to the process of eliciting expert judgement, outlines four exemplar environments: coastal, open water, under sea ice and under shelf ice, and gives a worked example of one expert’s judgement on the probability of loss in the four environments arising from a real fault with the Autosub1 AUV. Using the fault history of the Autosub3 AUV, included in the Annex, we ask experts from among UUST attendees (and others) to take part in this expert judgement elicitation. Based on the results of this elicitation we aim to publish a paper in the peer-reviewed literature.

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Citation

Griffiths, G. and Trembanis, A. (2007) Eliciting expert judgement for the probability of AUV loss in contrasting operational environments In 15th International Symposium on Unmanned Untethered Submersible Technology (UUST 07). Autonomous Undersea Systems Institute. 17 pp, 17pp.

More information

Published date: 2007
Venue - Dates: 15th International Symposium on Unmanned Untethered Submersible Technology (UUST07), 2007-08-19 - 2007-08-22

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 48437
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/48437
PURE UUID: 83a917b5-b9d7-48bc-a1ae-93529a7ea51c

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 21 Sep 2007
Last modified: 17 Jul 2017 14:59

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