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Eliciting expert judgement for the probability of AUV loss in contrasting operational environments

Eliciting expert judgement for the probability of AUV loss in contrasting operational environments
Eliciting expert judgement for the probability of AUV loss in contrasting operational environments
Each time an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) is used in the sea there is a non-zero probability of loss. Quantifying probability of loss is not an exact science; therefore much depends on the fault history of the vehicle, the operational environment and the complex relationships between the consequences of faults or incidents and the environment. While this problem may be stated in scientific terms, in practice, there is no solution through scientific means alone. This is an example of ‘trans-science’. We suggest that an approach based on the formal process of eliciting expert judgement may be an effective means of approaching this problem, as the process has been used successfully for other trans-scientific questions. The paper provides an introduction to the process of eliciting expert judgement, outlines four exemplar environments: coastal, open water, under sea ice and under shelf ice, and gives a worked example of one expert’s judgement on the probability of loss in the four environments arising from a real fault with the Autosub1 AUV. Using the fault history of the Autosub3 AUV, included in the Annex, we ask experts from among UUST attendees (and others) to take part in this expert judgement elicitation. Based on the results of this elicitation we aim to publish a paper in the peer-reviewed literature.
17pp
Autonomous Undersea Systems Institute
Griffiths, G.
2887c3c7-95f2-4834-b3f6-0284344d3580
Trembanis, A.
69dada77-fde1-4324-9a2d-b4700ca8a258
Griffiths, G.
2887c3c7-95f2-4834-b3f6-0284344d3580
Trembanis, A.
69dada77-fde1-4324-9a2d-b4700ca8a258

Griffiths, G. and Trembanis, A. (2007) Eliciting expert judgement for the probability of AUV loss in contrasting operational environments. In 15th International Symposium on Unmanned Untethered Submersible Technology (UUST 07). Autonomous Undersea Systems Institute. 17pp .

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Abstract

Each time an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) is used in the sea there is a non-zero probability of loss. Quantifying probability of loss is not an exact science; therefore much depends on the fault history of the vehicle, the operational environment and the complex relationships between the consequences of faults or incidents and the environment. While this problem may be stated in scientific terms, in practice, there is no solution through scientific means alone. This is an example of ‘trans-science’. We suggest that an approach based on the formal process of eliciting expert judgement may be an effective means of approaching this problem, as the process has been used successfully for other trans-scientific questions. The paper provides an introduction to the process of eliciting expert judgement, outlines four exemplar environments: coastal, open water, under sea ice and under shelf ice, and gives a worked example of one expert’s judgement on the probability of loss in the four environments arising from a real fault with the Autosub1 AUV. Using the fault history of the Autosub3 AUV, included in the Annex, we ask experts from among UUST attendees (and others) to take part in this expert judgement elicitation. Based on the results of this elicitation we aim to publish a paper in the peer-reviewed literature.

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Published date: 2007
Venue - Dates: 15th International Symposium on Unmanned Untethered Submersible Technology (UUST07), Durham, USA, 2007-08-19 - 2007-08-22

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 48437
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/48437
PURE UUID: 83a917b5-b9d7-48bc-a1ae-93529a7ea51c

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Date deposited: 21 Sep 2007
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 09:46

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Contributors

Author: G. Griffiths
Author: A. Trembanis

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