Effects of signalling tax evasion on redistribution and voting preferences: evidence from the Panama papers
Effects of signalling tax evasion on redistribution and voting preferences: evidence from the Panama papers
This paper provides empirical evidence that individuals substantially revise their stated wealth redistribution preferences after fiscal scandals. The 2016 Panama Papers scandal revealed top-income tax evasion behaviour simultaneously worldwide. The empirical investigation exploits this event as a quasi-natural experiment. I rely on two original datasets, a UK household longitudinal dataset and a survey conducted in 22 European countries. I use a difference-in-differences strategy and find that pro-redistribution statements increased between 2% and 3.3% after the scandal. Responses are heterogeneous and larger for right-wing individuals and low-income individuals. This change in wealth redistribution preferences is likely to have been translated into a slight change in votes. The results suggest an increase in stated voting intentions for the left and a decrease for the right. Complementary estimations reveal that more media coverage and more individuals involved by country increase the magnitude of the response.
Ouali, Laila Ait Bihi
7b10e1b1-25e7-4629-b96e-d5bf8de362a7
Ouali, Laila Ait Bihi
7b10e1b1-25e7-4629-b96e-d5bf8de362a7
Ouali, Laila Ait Bihi
(2020)
Effects of signalling tax evasion on redistribution and voting preferences: evidence from the Panama papers.
PLoS ONE, 15 (3), [e0229394].
(doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0229394).
Abstract
This paper provides empirical evidence that individuals substantially revise their stated wealth redistribution preferences after fiscal scandals. The 2016 Panama Papers scandal revealed top-income tax evasion behaviour simultaneously worldwide. The empirical investigation exploits this event as a quasi-natural experiment. I rely on two original datasets, a UK household longitudinal dataset and a survey conducted in 22 European countries. I use a difference-in-differences strategy and find that pro-redistribution statements increased between 2% and 3.3% after the scandal. Responses are heterogeneous and larger for right-wing individuals and low-income individuals. This change in wealth redistribution preferences is likely to have been translated into a slight change in votes. The results suggest an increase in stated voting intentions for the left and a decrease for the right. Complementary estimations reveal that more media coverage and more individuals involved by country increase the magnitude of the response.
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Accepted/In Press date: 5 February 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 10 March 2020
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This research has been funded by a Aix Marseille School of Economics fellowship over the duration and completion of my PhD studies. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. All errors are mine. I am grateful to Frank Cowell, Lucie Gadenne, Cl?ment Imbert, Camille Landais, Valentino Larcinese, the two anonymous referees and the editor for their useful comments. I also thank Philippe Aghion, Pierre Boyer, Pierre Cahuc, Alain Kramarz, Etienne Lehmann, Emmanuelle Taugourdeau, Antoine Terracol, the participants at the CREST seminar, the 67th AFSE conference and the 16th LAGV conference for their insightful suggestions.
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Local EPrints ID: 485458
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/485458
ISSN: 1932-6203
PURE UUID: 2bc6e4a8-69cc-481f-b5da-2cad1d494464
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Date deposited: 06 Dec 2023 17:56
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 12:53
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