Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: a framework based on personal experience
Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: a framework based on personal experience
System dynamics (SD) is a methodology to generate qualitative and quantitative models. SD has two main concepts that are highly suitable to use with scenarios: feedback processes that define the structure of sociotechnical systems and accumulation processes that are responsible for the dynamic behavior of systems over time. This article discusses a framework that integrates methodologically scenarios and SD. The integration can take multiple forms depending on the use of SD for creating or supporting scenarios. The framework is illustrated with multiple examples. Since SDs' practice uses processes similar to scenario practice, mutual enrichment between the communities can be highly successful.
intuitive logics, scenario, simulation, system dynamics
Kunc, Martin
0b254052-f9f5-49f9-ac0b-148c257ba412
Kunc, Martin
0b254052-f9f5-49f9-ac0b-148c257ba412
Kunc, Martin
(2023)
Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: a framework based on personal experience.
Futures and Foresight Science, [e174].
(doi:10.1002/ffo2.174).
Abstract
System dynamics (SD) is a methodology to generate qualitative and quantitative models. SD has two main concepts that are highly suitable to use with scenarios: feedback processes that define the structure of sociotechnical systems and accumulation processes that are responsible for the dynamic behavior of systems over time. This article discusses a framework that integrates methodologically scenarios and SD. The integration can take multiple forms depending on the use of SD for creating or supporting scenarios. The framework is illustrated with multiple examples. Since SDs' practice uses processes similar to scenario practice, mutual enrichment between the communities can be highly successful.
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Futures Foresight Science - 2023 - Kunc - Integrating system dynamics and scenarios A framework based on personal
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Accepted/In Press date: 19 October 2023
e-pub ahead of print date: 27 November 2023
Keywords:
intuitive logics, scenario, simulation, system dynamics
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 485724
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/485724
ISSN: 2573-5152
PURE UUID: 7efd405c-56ba-47ac-b05b-4ea6877be400
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Date deposited: 15 Dec 2023 17:39
Last modified: 18 Mar 2024 03:51
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