Explaining ethnic differentials in COVID-19 mortality: a cohort study

Abstract

Ethnic inequalities in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalizations and mortality have been widely reported, but there is scant understanding of how they are embodied. The UK Biobank prospective cohort study comprises approximately half a million people who were aged 40-69 years at study induction, between 2006 and 2010, when information on ethnic background and potential explanatory factors was captured. Study members were prospectively linked to a national mortality registry. In an analytical sample of 448,664 individuals (248,820 women), 705 deaths were ascribed to COVID-19 between March 5, 2020, and January 24, 2021. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, relative to White participants, Black study members experienced approximately 5 times the risk of COVID-19 mortality (odds ratio (OR) = 4.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.28, 7.05), while there was a doubling in the South Asian group (OR = 2.05, 95% CI: 1.30, 3.25). Controlling for baseline comorbidities, social factors (including socioeconomic circumstances), and lifestyle indices attenuated this risk differential by 34% in Black study members (OR = 2.84, 95% CI: 1.91, 4.23) and 37% in South Asian individuals (OR = 1.57, 95% CI: 0.97, 2.55). The residual risk of COVID-19 deaths in ethnic minority groups may be ascribed to a range of unmeasured characteristics and requires further exploration.

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