Spatiotemporal variations of “triple-demic” outbreaks of respiratory infections in the United States in the post-COVID-19 era
Spatiotemporal variations of “triple-demic” outbreaks of respiratory infections in the United States in the post-COVID-19 era
Background: the US confronted a “triple-demic” of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and COVID-19 in the winter of 2022, leading to increased respiratory infections and a higher demand for medical supplies. It is urgent to analyze these epidemics and their spatial-temporal co-occurrence, identifying hotspots and informing public health strategies.
Methods: we employed retrospective and prospective space-time scan statistics to assess the situations of COVID-19, influenza, and RSV in 51 US states from October 2021 to February 2022, and from October 2022 to February 2023, respectively. This enabled monitoring of spatiotemporal variations for each epidemic individually and collectively.
Results: compared to winter 2021, COVID-19 cases decreased while influenza and RSV infections significantly increased in winter 2022. We found a high-risk cluster of influenza and COVID-19 (not all three) in winter 2021. In late November 2022, a large high-risk cluster of triple-demic emerged in the central US. The number of states at high risk for multiple epidemics increased from 15 in October 2022 to 21 in January 2023.
Conclusions: our study offers a novel spatiotemporal approach that combines both univariate and multivariate surveillance, as well as retrospective and prospective analyses. This approach offers a more comprehensive and timely understanding of how the co-occurrence of COVID-19, influenza, and RSV impacts various regions within the United States. Our findings assist in tailor-made strategies to mitigate the effects of these respiratory infections.
COVID-19, Influenza, Multivariate surveillance, Respiratory syncytial virus, Space-time clusters, Triple-demic
Luo, Wei
c76a8e31-38e7-47cb-bd13-670fc8ab036d
Liu, Qianhuang
f12e9315-c02c-4090-bee7-e85fab2a6263
Zhou, Yuxuan
506d8d9c-cb29-4c6a-b706-6bc238d213f9
Ran, Yiding
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Liu, Zhaoyin
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Hou, Weitao
04170ff5-2727-4b64-a4fd-84658f3cae56
Pei, Sen
e1315d59-94a9-4023-856b-137dae73f44e
Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
7 December 2023
Luo, Wei
c76a8e31-38e7-47cb-bd13-670fc8ab036d
Liu, Qianhuang
f12e9315-c02c-4090-bee7-e85fab2a6263
Zhou, Yuxuan
506d8d9c-cb29-4c6a-b706-6bc238d213f9
Ran, Yiding
b08ca90c-9f7d-4a44-a97d-9704aacb3283
Liu, Zhaoyin
4eaa52c7-e0fa-4767-a576-ac512b9fd666
Hou, Weitao
04170ff5-2727-4b64-a4fd-84658f3cae56
Pei, Sen
e1315d59-94a9-4023-856b-137dae73f44e
Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
Luo, Wei, Liu, Qianhuang, Zhou, Yuxuan, Ran, Yiding, Liu, Zhaoyin, Hou, Weitao, Pei, Sen and Lai, Shengjie
(2023)
Spatiotemporal variations of “triple-demic” outbreaks of respiratory infections in the United States in the post-COVID-19 era.
BMC Public Health, 23 (1), [2452].
(doi:10.1186/s12889-023-17406-9).
Abstract
Background: the US confronted a “triple-demic” of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and COVID-19 in the winter of 2022, leading to increased respiratory infections and a higher demand for medical supplies. It is urgent to analyze these epidemics and their spatial-temporal co-occurrence, identifying hotspots and informing public health strategies.
Methods: we employed retrospective and prospective space-time scan statistics to assess the situations of COVID-19, influenza, and RSV in 51 US states from October 2021 to February 2022, and from October 2022 to February 2023, respectively. This enabled monitoring of spatiotemporal variations for each epidemic individually and collectively.
Results: compared to winter 2021, COVID-19 cases decreased while influenza and RSV infections significantly increased in winter 2022. We found a high-risk cluster of influenza and COVID-19 (not all three) in winter 2021. In late November 2022, a large high-risk cluster of triple-demic emerged in the central US. The number of states at high risk for multiple epidemics increased from 15 in October 2022 to 21 in January 2023.
Conclusions: our study offers a novel spatiotemporal approach that combines both univariate and multivariate surveillance, as well as retrospective and prospective analyses. This approach offers a more comprehensive and timely understanding of how the co-occurrence of COVID-19, influenza, and RSV impacts various regions within the United States. Our findings assist in tailor-made strategies to mitigate the effects of these respiratory infections.
Text
s12889-023-17406-9
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More information
Accepted/In Press date: 4 December 2023
Published date: 7 December 2023
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
This work was supported in part by National University of Singapore FY2020 START-UP GRANT under WBS A-0003623-00-00. SL was supported by the National Institute for Health (MIDAS Mobility R01AI160780) and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-024911). It involves data collection, analysis, and interpretations well as publication fee if applicable. We were not precluded from accessing data in the study, and we accept responsibility to submit for publication.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).
Keywords:
COVID-19, Influenza, Multivariate surveillance, Respiratory syncytial virus, Space-time clusters, Triple-demic
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 485948
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/485948
ISSN: 1471-2458
PURE UUID: 02f82315-91e4-4a25-9dc5-78d10fdb572c
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Date deposited: 04 Jan 2024 05:59
Last modified: 18 Mar 2024 03:48
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Contributors
Author:
Wei Luo
Author:
Qianhuang Liu
Author:
Yuxuan Zhou
Author:
Yiding Ran
Author:
Zhaoyin Liu
Author:
Weitao Hou
Author:
Sen Pei
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