The saving-investment relationship revisited: new evidence from regime-switching cointegration approach

Abstract

This paper exploits the regime-switching threshold cointegration approach to elicit the dynamics in the saving-investment relationship and capital mobility in India. Empirical results offer key insights into the threshold cointegration between the saving and investment rates. We find that the adjustment in investment rate in the upper regime is faster than in the lower regime, indicating the higher mobility of capital in the upper regime. Further, results reveal the absence of firm evidence of long-run vs. short-run asymmetries between saving and investment rates. However, results suggest that cumulative positive and negative sums of saving rates affect investment rates. We have made adjustments to cyclical and trend patterns in our data using Hamilton's (2018) filter and have produced robust results with regard to asymmetric cointegration. The posterior estimation results suggest that a downward trend in the saving rates substantially impacts the investment rates, and widening the gap between saving and investment rates facilitates huge mobility of international capital in the long run.

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ORCID for Tapas Mishra: orcid.org/0000-0002-6902-2326

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