The prognostic value of derived neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio in oesophageal cancer treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy

Abstract

Background and purpose: the derived neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (dNLR) is a validated prognostic biomarker for cancer survival but has not been extensively studied in locally-advanced oesophageal cancer treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT). We aimed to identify the prognostic value of dNLR in patients recruited to the SCOPE1 trial.

Materials and methods: 258 patients were randomised to receive dCRT ± cetuximab. Kaplan–Meier’s curves and both univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were calculated for overall survival (OS), progression free survival (PFS), local PFS inside the radiation volume (LPFSi), local PFS outside the radiation volume (LPFSo), and distant PFS (DPFS).

Results: an elevated pre-treatment dNLR ≥ 2 was significantly associated with decreased OS in univariable (HR 1.74 [95% CI 1.29–2.35], p < 0.001) and multivariable analyses (HR 1.64 [1.17–2.29], p = 0.004). Median OS was 36 months (95% CI 27.8–42.4) if dNLR < 2 and 18.4 months (95% CI 14.1–24.9) if dNLR ≥ 2. All measures of PFS were also significantly reduced with an elevated dNLR. dNLR was prognostic for OS in cases of squamous cell carcinoma with a non-significant trend for adenocarcinoma/undifferentiated tumours.

Conclusions: an elevated pre-treatment dNLR may be an independent prognostic biomarker for OS and PFS in oesophageal cancer patients treated with definitive CRT. dNLR is a simple, inexpensive and readily available tool for risk-stratification and should be considered for use in future oesophageal cancer clinical trials.

The SCOPE1 trial was an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial [number 47718479].

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ORCID for Christopher Hurt: orcid.org/0000-0003-1206-8355

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