Statistical analysis and modelling of small satellite reliability
Statistical analysis and modelling of small satellite reliability
Smaller launching systems and highly reliable components have become dominant demand in the small satellite sector. This notwithstanding small satellites have been the cause of the majority of space debris. It is therefore correct to ask, what is the survivability of small satellites? To address this question a small satellite database was constructed based on 4567 small satellites deployed from 1990 to 2022. All satellites are restricted with a launch mass of no more than 500kg. In this paper, we present the survival distributions for different types of satellites based on satellite mass category, standard compliance and subsystem contribution. Our findings show that after the successful launch, microsatellites and minisatellites are equally reliable within the first 20 years on-orbit, with approximately a 98% reliability rate. Compared to microsatellites and minisatellites, picosatellites and nanosatellites exhibit high infant mortality and short lifetimes, which is no more than 10 years. We have found that the small satellite designed based on ECSS (European Cooperation for Space Standardization) and NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) standards have a relatively higher reliability rate than that of satellites that comply with JAXA and other standards. With respect to subsystem behaviour, the communication system is the major contributor to small satellite failure, thus designers should pay more attention to addressing no signal, and software disconnection-related problems.
Reliability, Small satellite, Statistical analysis, On-orbit failure, Mass, Standard
296-303
Research Publishing, Singapore
Xu, Kaiqi
16736bcc-ce25-4dad-94d2-eeb639679373
Brito, Mario
82e798e7-e032-4841-992e-81c6f13a9e6c
Young, Charlie
b7fd50cf-9f93-43cc-9e6f-b1fc67da4b4e
Al-Mhdawi, M.K.S.
e23cdd27-fe4c-4aec-81b3-be2b2616bf6c
Dacre, Nicholas
90ea8d3e-d0b1-4a5a-bead-f95ab32afbd1
Baxter, David
a7d6ba3f-370f-493d-9202-218d5e6dfc54
September 2023
Xu, Kaiqi
16736bcc-ce25-4dad-94d2-eeb639679373
Brito, Mario
82e798e7-e032-4841-992e-81c6f13a9e6c
Young, Charlie
b7fd50cf-9f93-43cc-9e6f-b1fc67da4b4e
Al-Mhdawi, M.K.S.
e23cdd27-fe4c-4aec-81b3-be2b2616bf6c
Dacre, Nicholas
90ea8d3e-d0b1-4a5a-bead-f95ab32afbd1
Baxter, David
a7d6ba3f-370f-493d-9202-218d5e6dfc54
Xu, Kaiqi, Brito, Mario, Young, Charlie, Al-Mhdawi, M.K.S., Dacre, Nicholas and Baxter, David
(2023)
Statistical analysis and modelling of small satellite reliability.
Brito, Mário P., Aven, Terje, Baraldi, Piero, Čepin, Marko and Zio, Enrico
(eds.)
In Proceedings of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023).
Research Publishing, Singapore.
.
Record type:
Conference or Workshop Item
(Paper)
Abstract
Smaller launching systems and highly reliable components have become dominant demand in the small satellite sector. This notwithstanding small satellites have been the cause of the majority of space debris. It is therefore correct to ask, what is the survivability of small satellites? To address this question a small satellite database was constructed based on 4567 small satellites deployed from 1990 to 2022. All satellites are restricted with a launch mass of no more than 500kg. In this paper, we present the survival distributions for different types of satellites based on satellite mass category, standard compliance and subsystem contribution. Our findings show that after the successful launch, microsatellites and minisatellites are equally reliable within the first 20 years on-orbit, with approximately a 98% reliability rate. Compared to microsatellites and minisatellites, picosatellites and nanosatellites exhibit high infant mortality and short lifetimes, which is no more than 10 years. We have found that the small satellite designed based on ECSS (European Cooperation for Space Standardization) and NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) standards have a relatively higher reliability rate than that of satellites that comply with JAXA and other standards. With respect to subsystem behaviour, the communication system is the major contributor to small satellite failure, thus designers should pay more attention to addressing no signal, and software disconnection-related problems.
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More information
Published date: September 2023
Venue - Dates:
European Safety and Reliability Conference 2023, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom, 2023-09-03 - 2023-09-07
Keywords:
Reliability, Small satellite, Statistical analysis, On-orbit failure, Mass, Standard
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 489028
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/489028
PURE UUID: 0bad4404-beba-4121-9c8c-9c5ae11d88e1
Catalogue record
Date deposited: 11 Apr 2024 16:41
Last modified: 13 Apr 2024 01:47
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Contributors
Author:
Kaiqi Xu
Author:
Charlie Young
Author:
M.K.S. Al-Mhdawi
Editor:
Mário P. Brito
Editor:
Terje Aven
Editor:
Piero Baraldi
Editor:
Marko Čepin
Editor:
Enrico Zio
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