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Transient social–ecological dynamics reveal signals of decoupling in a highly disturbed Anthropocene landscape

Transient social–ecological dynamics reveal signals of decoupling in a highly disturbed Anthropocene landscape
Transient social–ecological dynamics reveal signals of decoupling in a highly disturbed Anthropocene landscape
Understanding the transient dynamics of interlinked social–ecological systems (SES) is imperative for assessing sustainability in the Anthropocene. However, how to identify critical transitions in real-world SES remains a formidable challenge. In this study, we present an evolutionary framework to characterize these dynamics over an extended historical timeline. Our approach leverages multidecadal rates of change in socioeconomic data, paleoenvironmental, and cutting-edge sedimentary ancient DNA records from China’s Yangtze River Delta, one of the most densely populated and intensively modified landscapes on Earth. Our analysis reveals two significant social–ecological transitions characterized by contrasting interactions and feedback spanning several centuries. Initially, the regional SES exhibited a loosely connected and ecologically sustainable regime. Nevertheless, starting in the 1950s, an increasingly interconnected regime emerged, ultimately resulting in the crossing of tipping points and an unprecedented acceleration in soil erosion, water eutrophication, and ecosystem degradation. Remarkably, the second transition occurring around the 2000s, featured a notable decoupling of socioeconomic development from ecoenvironmental degradation. This decoupling phenomenon signifies a more desirable reconfiguration of the regional SES, furnishing essential insights not only for the Yangtze River Basin but also for regions worldwide grappling with similar sustainability challenges. Our extensive multidecadal empirical investigation underscores the value of coevolutionary approaches in understanding and addressing social–ecological system dynamics.
Anthropocene, critical transition, freshwater ecosystem, resilience, social–ecological system
0027-8424
e2321303121
Lin, Qi
e0647214-2277-466e-8302-62ed88719a77
Zhang, Ke
82a6cd8f-adc0-4818-bf70-739e6144de0e
Giguet-Covex, Charline
d6d5280a-abc1-409e-879f-0c320840eade
Arnaud, Fabien
4e44c3ce-9193-4ee5-93ca-1e05e9268eb6
McGowan, Suzanne
b06e2e74-95bb-44d6-8184-273c8dec9883
Gielly, Ludovic
0a5c6314-0ee8-4df7-8af0-7bf31b9b15fe
Capo, Eric
81d4da42-40b5-445d-a048-6aeb90f4511f
Huang, Shixin
20e839b0-006b-4873-af34-b6ff666b796d
Ficetola, Gentile Francesco
4edb8d49-6198-4689-8555-577b8bcbce0c
Shen, Ji
e46a99fe-42de-4d1f-a225-af1d7cb2a3d1
Dearing, John
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Meadows, Michael E.
133741cb-d680-4772-a16d-5efabaf2be09
Lin, Qi
e0647214-2277-466e-8302-62ed88719a77
Zhang, Ke
82a6cd8f-adc0-4818-bf70-739e6144de0e
Giguet-Covex, Charline
d6d5280a-abc1-409e-879f-0c320840eade
Arnaud, Fabien
4e44c3ce-9193-4ee5-93ca-1e05e9268eb6
McGowan, Suzanne
b06e2e74-95bb-44d6-8184-273c8dec9883
Gielly, Ludovic
0a5c6314-0ee8-4df7-8af0-7bf31b9b15fe
Capo, Eric
81d4da42-40b5-445d-a048-6aeb90f4511f
Huang, Shixin
20e839b0-006b-4873-af34-b6ff666b796d
Ficetola, Gentile Francesco
4edb8d49-6198-4689-8555-577b8bcbce0c
Shen, Ji
e46a99fe-42de-4d1f-a225-af1d7cb2a3d1
Dearing, John
dff37300-b8a6-4406-ad84-89aa01de03d7
Meadows, Michael E.
133741cb-d680-4772-a16d-5efabaf2be09

Lin, Qi, Zhang, Ke, Giguet-Covex, Charline, Arnaud, Fabien, McGowan, Suzanne, Gielly, Ludovic, Capo, Eric, Huang, Shixin, Ficetola, Gentile Francesco, Shen, Ji, Dearing, John and Meadows, Michael E. (2024) Transient social–ecological dynamics reveal signals of decoupling in a highly disturbed Anthropocene landscape. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121 (17), e2321303121, [e2321303121]. (doi:10.1073/pnas.2321303121).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Understanding the transient dynamics of interlinked social–ecological systems (SES) is imperative for assessing sustainability in the Anthropocene. However, how to identify critical transitions in real-world SES remains a formidable challenge. In this study, we present an evolutionary framework to characterize these dynamics over an extended historical timeline. Our approach leverages multidecadal rates of change in socioeconomic data, paleoenvironmental, and cutting-edge sedimentary ancient DNA records from China’s Yangtze River Delta, one of the most densely populated and intensively modified landscapes on Earth. Our analysis reveals two significant social–ecological transitions characterized by contrasting interactions and feedback spanning several centuries. Initially, the regional SES exhibited a loosely connected and ecologically sustainable regime. Nevertheless, starting in the 1950s, an increasingly interconnected regime emerged, ultimately resulting in the crossing of tipping points and an unprecedented acceleration in soil erosion, water eutrophication, and ecosystem degradation. Remarkably, the second transition occurring around the 2000s, featured a notable decoupling of socioeconomic development from ecoenvironmental degradation. This decoupling phenomenon signifies a more desirable reconfiguration of the regional SES, furnishing essential insights not only for the Yangtze River Basin but also for regions worldwide grappling with similar sustainability challenges. Our extensive multidecadal empirical investigation underscores the value of coevolutionary approaches in understanding and addressing social–ecological system dynamics.

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Accepted/In Press date: 19 March 2024
Published date: 23 April 2024
Additional Information: Publisher Copyright: © 2024 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Anthropocene, critical transition, freshwater ecosystem, resilience, social–ecological system

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 489429
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/489429
ISSN: 0027-8424
PURE UUID: ad2239ad-111c-4877-b0d9-c8494c91a8dd
ORCID for John Dearing: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-1466-9640

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Date deposited: 24 Apr 2024 16:33
Last modified: 15 Jun 2024 01:39

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Contributors

Author: Qi Lin
Author: Ke Zhang
Author: Charline Giguet-Covex
Author: Fabien Arnaud
Author: Suzanne McGowan
Author: Ludovic Gielly
Author: Eric Capo
Author: Shixin Huang
Author: Gentile Francesco Ficetola
Author: Ji Shen
Author: John Dearing ORCID iD
Author: Michael E. Meadows

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