Airbag moderation: a new hypothesis and range of statistical methods that capture many hitherto neglected types of process

Hall, James, Malmberg, Lars Erik, Lindorff, Ariel, Baumann, Nicole and Sammons, Pamela (2024) Airbag moderation: a new hypothesis and range of statistical methods that capture many hitherto neglected types of process. 2024 Modern Modeling Methods Conference, University of Connecticut, Storrs, United States. 24 - 26 Jun 2024.

Abstract

The airbag in your car, your immune system, the provision of free meals in schools -- these systems (and many others) are different yet have elements that operate in the same manner. Until recently however there was no methodological term that described this underlying common functionality and therefore also no commonly understood way to statistically model their effects. Instead, researchers both conceived of, and tested, only part of these systems (via application of the hypothesis, and statistical methods for, Moderation) with the consequence that this partial-testing has introduced sizeable gaps in knowledge within many fields of research. This presentation: 1. introduces a hypothesis that describes these systems/functions, "Airbag Moderation", 2. Describes a range of statistical methods that exist to help empirically test for their presence; 3. Provides an empirical demonstration of data from 2608 families to show the effectiveness of UK Sure Start Children’s Centres. The take-home message is that: Airbag Moderation is a novel hypothesis that is demonstrably more suitable than Moderation for conceptualizing and testing a wide range of theories, interventions, and social policies. It is also easily implemented via existing statistical techniques. Potential applications of Airbag Moderation suggest future directions for research in substantive and methodological areas.

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Contributors

Author: James Hall

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