Investigation of fire regime dynamics and modeling of burn area over India for the twenty-first century
Investigation of fire regime dynamics and modeling of burn area over India for the twenty-first century
The characteristics of the vegetation fire (VF) regime are strongly influenced by geographical variables such as regional physiographic settings, location, and climate. Understanding the VF regime is extremely important for managing and mitigating the impacts of fires on ecosystems, communities, and human activities in forest fire-prone regions. The present study thereby aimed to explore the potential effects of the confounding factors on VF in India to offer actionable and achievable solutions for mitigating this concurring environmental issue sustainably. A global burn area (250 m) data (Fire-CCIv5.1) and fire radiative power (FRP) were used to investigate the dynamics of VF across seven different divisions in India. The study also used the maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, population density, and intensity of human modification to model forest burn areas (including grassland). The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) was used to predict the burn area for 2030 and 2050 future climate scenarios. The present study accounted for a sizable increasing trend of VF during 2001-2019 period. The highest increasing trend was found in central India (513 and 343 km
2 year
-1 in the forest and crop fire, respectively), followed by southern India (364 km
2 year
-1 in forest fire), and upper Indo-Gangetic plain (128 km
2 year
-1 in crop fire). The FRP has varied significantly across the divisions, with the north-eastern Himalayas exhibiting the highest FRP hotspot. The maximum and minimum temperatures have the greatest influence on forest fires, according to Random Forest (RF) modeling. The estimated pre-monsoonal burn area for 2050 and 2050 future scenarios suggested a more frequent forest fire occurrence across India, particularly in southern and central India. A comprehensive forest fire control policy is therefore essential to safeguard and conserve forest cover in the regions, affected by forest fire periodically.
Anthropogenic activities, Burn area, Climate, Fire radiative power, Fire regime, Random Forest
53839-53855
Bar, Somnath
1e199d14-4020-46ef-9dfa-733fe5fa6082
Acharya, Prasenjit
10112fa6-2292-4673-ad17-2888d5e76893
Parida, Bikash Ranjan
21c6f8e7-5d6c-4d46-86e3-4e7160b4d1b5
Sannigrahi, Srikanta
a30e7158-fbf1-4ce1-a728-1c4a4045e3f9
Maiti, Arabinda
fb60d92e-e7ad-4419-bbd2-061651122329
Barik, Gunadhar
f1ac8509-2f44-4c96-880c-2f79b90adc05
Kumar, Navneet
39575d58-54de-4759-9005-00fe1b0ad598
September 2024
Bar, Somnath
1e199d14-4020-46ef-9dfa-733fe5fa6082
Acharya, Prasenjit
10112fa6-2292-4673-ad17-2888d5e76893
Parida, Bikash Ranjan
21c6f8e7-5d6c-4d46-86e3-4e7160b4d1b5
Sannigrahi, Srikanta
a30e7158-fbf1-4ce1-a728-1c4a4045e3f9
Maiti, Arabinda
fb60d92e-e7ad-4419-bbd2-061651122329
Barik, Gunadhar
f1ac8509-2f44-4c96-880c-2f79b90adc05
Kumar, Navneet
39575d58-54de-4759-9005-00fe1b0ad598
Bar, Somnath, Acharya, Prasenjit, Parida, Bikash Ranjan, Sannigrahi, Srikanta, Maiti, Arabinda, Barik, Gunadhar and Kumar, Navneet
(2024)
Investigation of fire regime dynamics and modeling of burn area over India for the twenty-first century.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 31 (41), .
(doi:10.1007/s11356-024-32922-w).
Abstract
The characteristics of the vegetation fire (VF) regime are strongly influenced by geographical variables such as regional physiographic settings, location, and climate. Understanding the VF regime is extremely important for managing and mitigating the impacts of fires on ecosystems, communities, and human activities in forest fire-prone regions. The present study thereby aimed to explore the potential effects of the confounding factors on VF in India to offer actionable and achievable solutions for mitigating this concurring environmental issue sustainably. A global burn area (250 m) data (Fire-CCIv5.1) and fire radiative power (FRP) were used to investigate the dynamics of VF across seven different divisions in India. The study also used the maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, population density, and intensity of human modification to model forest burn areas (including grassland). The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) was used to predict the burn area for 2030 and 2050 future climate scenarios. The present study accounted for a sizable increasing trend of VF during 2001-2019 period. The highest increasing trend was found in central India (513 and 343 km
2 year
-1 in the forest and crop fire, respectively), followed by southern India (364 km
2 year
-1 in forest fire), and upper Indo-Gangetic plain (128 km
2 year
-1 in crop fire). The FRP has varied significantly across the divisions, with the north-eastern Himalayas exhibiting the highest FRP hotspot. The maximum and minimum temperatures have the greatest influence on forest fires, according to Random Forest (RF) modeling. The estimated pre-monsoonal burn area for 2050 and 2050 future scenarios suggested a more frequent forest fire occurrence across India, particularly in southern and central India. A comprehensive forest fire control policy is therefore essential to safeguard and conserve forest cover in the regions, affected by forest fire periodically.
Text
Investigation of fire regime dynamics and modeling of burn area over India for the 21st Century
- Accepted Manuscript
Restricted to Repository staff only until 19 March 2025.
Available under License Other.
Request a copy
More information
Accepted/In Press date: 11 March 2024
e-pub ahead of print date: 19 March 2024
Published date: September 2024
Additional Information:
© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
Keywords:
Anthropogenic activities, Burn area, Climate, Fire radiative power, Fire regime, Random Forest
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 490554
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/490554
ISSN: 0944-1344
PURE UUID: b2fdfdc4-c9b7-46af-b33b-013dcff2a7b9
Catalogue record
Date deposited: 30 May 2024 16:40
Last modified: 06 Nov 2024 03:09
Export record
Altmetrics
Contributors
Author:
Somnath Bar
Author:
Prasenjit Acharya
Author:
Bikash Ranjan Parida
Author:
Srikanta Sannigrahi
Author:
Arabinda Maiti
Author:
Gunadhar Barik
Author:
Navneet Kumar
Download statistics
Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.
View more statistics