The decrease in ocean heat transport in response to global warming
The decrease in ocean heat transport in response to global warming
The ocean is taking up additional heat but how this affects ocean circulation and heat transport is unclear. Here, using coupled model intercomparison project phase 5/6 (CMIP5/6) climate projections, we show a future decrease in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) across all Northern Hemisphere latitudes and south of 10° S. Most notably, the CMIP5/6 multimodel mean reduction in poleward OHT for the Atlantic at 26.5° N and Indo-Pacific at 20° S is 0.093–0.304 PW and 0.097–0.194 PW, respectively, dependent on scenario and CMIP phase. These changes in OHT are driven by decline in overturning circulation dampened by upper ocean warming. In the Southern Ocean, the reduction in poleward OHT at 55° S is 0.071–0.268 PW. The projected changes are stronger in CMIP6, even when corrected for its larger climate sensitivity. This is especially noticable in the Atlantic Ocean for the weaker forcing scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathway SSP 1-2.6/representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6), where the decrease is 2.5 times larger at 26.5° N due to a stronger decline in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
1229-1236
Mecking, Jennifer V.
9b090069-5061-4340-b736-9690894ce203
Drijfhout, Sybren S.
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
November 2023
Mecking, Jennifer V.
9b090069-5061-4340-b736-9690894ce203
Drijfhout, Sybren S.
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
Mecking, Jennifer V. and Drijfhout, Sybren S.
(2023)
The decrease in ocean heat transport in response to global warming.
Nature Climate Change, 13 (11), .
(doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01829-8).
Abstract
The ocean is taking up additional heat but how this affects ocean circulation and heat transport is unclear. Here, using coupled model intercomparison project phase 5/6 (CMIP5/6) climate projections, we show a future decrease in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) across all Northern Hemisphere latitudes and south of 10° S. Most notably, the CMIP5/6 multimodel mean reduction in poleward OHT for the Atlantic at 26.5° N and Indo-Pacific at 20° S is 0.093–0.304 PW and 0.097–0.194 PW, respectively, dependent on scenario and CMIP phase. These changes in OHT are driven by decline in overturning circulation dampened by upper ocean warming. In the Southern Ocean, the reduction in poleward OHT at 55° S is 0.071–0.268 PW. The projected changes are stronger in CMIP6, even when corrected for its larger climate sensitivity. This is especially noticable in the Atlantic Ocean for the weaker forcing scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathway SSP 1-2.6/representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6), where the decrease is 2.5 times larger at 26.5° N due to a stronger decline in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
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s41558-023-01829-8
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Accepted/In Press date: 4 September 2023
e-pub ahead of print date: 12 October 2023
Published date: November 2023
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© 2023, The Author(s).
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Local EPrints ID: 490615
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/490615
ISSN: 1758-678X
PURE UUID: c70f6bc4-51cb-4876-9f06-0cd070c98384
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Date deposited: 31 May 2024 16:42
Last modified: 01 Jun 2024 01:44
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Author:
Jennifer V. Mecking
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