How cognitive bias prevents serendipity in new product development (and what to do about it)
How cognitive bias prevents serendipity in new product development (and what to do about it)
The purpose of this article is to identify practical strategies that new product development (NPD) managers can undertake to increase the likelihood of serendipity within the NPD process by focusing on overcoming the barriers presented by cognitive bias. We adopt an alternative methodological approach based on analogical reasoning to develop a series of propositions that explain the relationship between cognitive biases and serendipity. We present a process model of how serendipity unfolds within NPD. We provide a detailed analysis of cognitive bias within NPD, and identify those categories of biases that are most likely to hinder the occurrence and realization of serendipity in NPD. Finally, we propose a strategy of debiasing NPD activities to enable serendipity and thereby improve new product performance. This article concludes with a research agenda and discusses implications for firms.
Cognition, Cognitive bias, Debiasing, Focusing, New Product Development, Product development, Serendipity, Systematics, Task analysis, Technological innovation, Uncertainty, debiasing, serendipity, new product development (NDP)
11269-11281
Trott, Paul
c27a18b4-0115-462d-80a7-d5897760492e
Ellwood, Paul
044c2165-152f-48ea-8a2b-960a18251b56
Baxter, David
a7d6ba3f-370f-493d-9202-218d5e6dfc54
30 May 2024
Trott, Paul
c27a18b4-0115-462d-80a7-d5897760492e
Ellwood, Paul
044c2165-152f-48ea-8a2b-960a18251b56
Baxter, David
a7d6ba3f-370f-493d-9202-218d5e6dfc54
Trott, Paul, Ellwood, Paul and Baxter, David
(2024)
How cognitive bias prevents serendipity in new product development (and what to do about it).
IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 71, .
(doi:10.1109/TEM.2024.3407515).
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to identify practical strategies that new product development (NPD) managers can undertake to increase the likelihood of serendipity within the NPD process by focusing on overcoming the barriers presented by cognitive bias. We adopt an alternative methodological approach based on analogical reasoning to develop a series of propositions that explain the relationship between cognitive biases and serendipity. We present a process model of how serendipity unfolds within NPD. We provide a detailed analysis of cognitive bias within NPD, and identify those categories of biases that are most likely to hinder the occurrence and realization of serendipity in NPD. Finally, we propose a strategy of debiasing NPD activities to enable serendipity and thereby improve new product performance. This article concludes with a research agenda and discusses implications for firms.
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How_cognitive_bias_prevents_serendipity_in_new_product_development_AUTHOR_MANUSCRIPT
- Accepted Manuscript
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Accepted/In Press date: 2024
Published date: 30 May 2024
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© 1988-2012 IEEE.
Keywords:
Cognition, Cognitive bias, Debiasing, Focusing, New Product Development, Product development, Serendipity, Systematics, Task analysis, Technological innovation, Uncertainty, debiasing, serendipity, new product development (NDP)
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 490901
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/490901
ISSN: 0018-9391
PURE UUID: adfd7831-cc1f-44b0-89a4-14e6ebf6eec3
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Date deposited: 07 Jun 2024 17:46
Last modified: 23 Jul 2024 01:48
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Author:
Paul Trott
Author:
Paul Ellwood
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