Compound flooding potential from the joint occurrence of precipitation and storm surge in the Qiantang Estuary, China
Compound flooding potential from the joint occurrence of precipitation and storm surge in the Qiantang Estuary, China
In coastal regions, compound flooding, driven by multiple flood hazard sources, can cause greater damage than when the flood drivers occur in isolation. This study focuses on compound flooding from extreme precipitation and storm surge in China’s Qiantang Estuary. We quantify the potential of compound flooding by measuring bivariate joint statistical dependence and joint return period (JRP). We find a significant positive dependence between the two flood drivers considered, as indicated by Kendall’s rank correlation coefficients. Compound events occur frequently, with an average of 2.65 events per year from 1979 to 2018, highlighting the significant concern of compound flooding for this estuary. Using a copula model, we demonstrate that considering the dependence between the two flood drivers shortens the JRP of compound flooding compared to the JRP assuming total independence. For a 1-in-10-yr precipitation event and 1-in-10-yr storm surge event, the JRP is 1 in 100 years when assuming total independence. However, it decreases to 1 in 32.44 years when considering their dependence. Ignoring the dependence between flood drivers can lead to an increase in the JRP of compound events, resulting in an underestimation of the overall flood risk. Our analysis reveals a strong link between the weather patterns creating compound events and extreme storm surge only events with tropical cyclone activity. Additionally, the extreme precipitation only events were found to be connected with the frontal system of the East Asian summer monsoon. This study highlights the importance of considering the dependence between multiple flood drivers associated with certain types of the same weather systems when assessing the flood risk in coastal regions.
Coastal meteorology, Flood events, Precipitation, Rivers, Storm surges
735-753
Wu, Yanjuan
358fced6-9b7d-4f75-9066-e2f94f4b33cd
Haigh, Ivan D.
945ff20a-589c-47b7-b06f-61804367eb2d
Gao, Chao
249a2c6e-cf9a-4463-bd78-0f2ad7a17a3a
Jenkins, Luke J.
a306cf57-8510-40b6-8aa0-96910f21807b
Green, Joshua
b20fb9a5-1fd9-4646-96b0-64620bed7aa3
Jane, Robert
09683468-da38-4e8d-a403-0a3a52731e41
Xu, Yu
822bef59-1c3d-4510-91fe-b6e82aa1b534
Hu, Hengzhi
1b090b37-e9fd-434b-8154-7f9f4d79e886
Wu, Naicheng
c9f61622-eb59-48b1-b216-f82e1723d4cb
15 May 2024
Wu, Yanjuan
358fced6-9b7d-4f75-9066-e2f94f4b33cd
Haigh, Ivan D.
945ff20a-589c-47b7-b06f-61804367eb2d
Gao, Chao
249a2c6e-cf9a-4463-bd78-0f2ad7a17a3a
Jenkins, Luke J.
a306cf57-8510-40b6-8aa0-96910f21807b
Green, Joshua
b20fb9a5-1fd9-4646-96b0-64620bed7aa3
Jane, Robert
09683468-da38-4e8d-a403-0a3a52731e41
Xu, Yu
822bef59-1c3d-4510-91fe-b6e82aa1b534
Hu, Hengzhi
1b090b37-e9fd-434b-8154-7f9f4d79e886
Wu, Naicheng
c9f61622-eb59-48b1-b216-f82e1723d4cb
Wu, Yanjuan, Haigh, Ivan D., Gao, Chao, Jenkins, Luke J., Green, Joshua, Jane, Robert, Xu, Yu, Hu, Hengzhi and Wu, Naicheng
(2024)
Compound flooding potential from the joint occurrence of precipitation and storm surge in the Qiantang Estuary, China.
Journal of Hydrometeorology, 25 (5), .
(doi:10.1175/JHM-D-23-0102.1).
Abstract
In coastal regions, compound flooding, driven by multiple flood hazard sources, can cause greater damage than when the flood drivers occur in isolation. This study focuses on compound flooding from extreme precipitation and storm surge in China’s Qiantang Estuary. We quantify the potential of compound flooding by measuring bivariate joint statistical dependence and joint return period (JRP). We find a significant positive dependence between the two flood drivers considered, as indicated by Kendall’s rank correlation coefficients. Compound events occur frequently, with an average of 2.65 events per year from 1979 to 2018, highlighting the significant concern of compound flooding for this estuary. Using a copula model, we demonstrate that considering the dependence between the two flood drivers shortens the JRP of compound flooding compared to the JRP assuming total independence. For a 1-in-10-yr precipitation event and 1-in-10-yr storm surge event, the JRP is 1 in 100 years when assuming total independence. However, it decreases to 1 in 32.44 years when considering their dependence. Ignoring the dependence between flood drivers can lead to an increase in the JRP of compound events, resulting in an underestimation of the overall flood risk. Our analysis reveals a strong link between the weather patterns creating compound events and extreme storm surge only events with tropical cyclone activity. Additionally, the extreme precipitation only events were found to be connected with the frontal system of the East Asian summer monsoon. This study highlights the importance of considering the dependence between multiple flood drivers associated with certain types of the same weather systems when assessing the flood risk in coastal regions.
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manuscript20240517final
- Accepted Manuscript
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Accepted/In Press date: 25 February 2024
Published date: 15 May 2024
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© 2024, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Coastal meteorology, Flood events, Precipitation, Rivers, Storm surges
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 491176
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/491176
ISSN: 1525-755X
PURE UUID: 107f77dc-d7cf-48c2-a717-4d1245245092
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Date deposited: 14 Jun 2024 16:38
Last modified: 12 Dec 2024 03:05
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Contributors
Author:
Yanjuan Wu
Author:
Chao Gao
Author:
Joshua Green
Author:
Robert Jane
Author:
Yu Xu
Author:
Hengzhi Hu
Author:
Naicheng Wu
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