A crisis of political trust? Global trends in institutional trust from 1958 to 2019
A crisis of political trust? Global trends in institutional trust from 1958 to 2019
In the study of politics, many theoretical accounts assume that we are experiencing a 'crisis of democracy', with declining levels of political trust. While some empirical studies support this account, others disagree and report 'trendless fluctuations'. We argue that these empirical ambiguities are based on analytical confusion: whether trust is declining depends on the institution, country, and period in question. We clarify these issues and apply our framework to an empirical analysis that is unprecedented in geographic and temporal scope: we apply Bayesian dynamic latent trait models to uncover underlying trends in data on trust in six institutions collated from 3,377 surveys conducted by 50 projects in 143 countries between 1958 and 2019. We identify important differences between countries and regions, but globally we find that trust in representative institutions has generally been declining in recent decades, whereas trust in 'implementing' institutions has been stable or rising. The Author(s), 2025.
crisis of democracy, institutional trust, political support, political trust, trust crisis
Valgarðsson, Viktor
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Jennings, Will
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Stoker, Gerry
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Bunting, Hannah
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Devine, Daniel
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Mckay, Lawrence
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Klassen, Andrew
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12 February 2025
Valgarðsson, Viktor
8f30ca41-f763-4cd2-9b08-1b4ff7ab27d9
Jennings, Will
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Stoker, Gerry
209ba619-6a65-4bc1-9235-cba0d826bfd9
Bunting, Hannah
bd634648-89b8-48cc-8911-a5989d2db97a
Devine, Daniel
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Mckay, Lawrence
4ecf2fd8-3fbf-4a3c-9c22-6856fc1a09be
Klassen, Andrew
a4a756fd-a3c3-42ec-a26a-3e961e27cd77
Valgarðsson, Viktor, Jennings, Will, Stoker, Gerry, Bunting, Hannah, Devine, Daniel, Mckay, Lawrence and Klassen, Andrew
(2025)
A crisis of political trust? Global trends in institutional trust from 1958 to 2019.
British Journal of Political Science, 55, [e15].
(doi:10.1017/S0007123424000498).
Abstract
In the study of politics, many theoretical accounts assume that we are experiencing a 'crisis of democracy', with declining levels of political trust. While some empirical studies support this account, others disagree and report 'trendless fluctuations'. We argue that these empirical ambiguities are based on analytical confusion: whether trust is declining depends on the institution, country, and period in question. We clarify these issues and apply our framework to an empirical analysis that is unprecedented in geographic and temporal scope: we apply Bayesian dynamic latent trait models to uncover underlying trends in data on trust in six institutions collated from 3,377 surveys conducted by 50 projects in 143 countries between 1958 and 2019. We identify important differences between countries and regions, but globally we find that trust in representative institutions has generally been declining in recent decades, whereas trust in 'implementing' institutions has been stable or rising. The Author(s), 2025.
Text
A Crisis of Trust_MainText_BJPS_final
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More information
Accepted/In Press date: 24 June 2024
e-pub ahead of print date: 12 February 2025
Published date: 12 February 2025
Keywords:
crisis of democracy, institutional trust, political support, political trust, trust crisis
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 491997
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/491997
ISSN: 0007-1234
PURE UUID: 6e93230d-2c8b-4a6f-a207-4f45c84ea789
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Date deposited: 11 Jul 2024 16:31
Last modified: 28 Feb 2025 05:06
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Author:
Hannah Bunting
Author:
Daniel Devine
Author:
Andrew Klassen
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