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Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland. (In Climate Change and Conservation Special Issue)

Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland. (In Climate Change and Conservation Special Issue)
Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland. (In Climate Change and Conservation Special Issue)
Aim: Climate change has the potential to have significant impacts on the distribution of species and on the composition of habitats. This paper identifies the potential changes in the future distribution of species under the UKCIP98 climate change scenarios, in order that such changes can be taken into account in conservation management.
Location: The model was applied to Britain and Ireland.
Methods: A model based on an artificial neural network was used to predict the changing bioclimate envelopes of species in Britain and Ireland. Fifty-four species representing 15 habitats were modelled.
Results: The modelled species could be placed into three categories: those losing suitable climate space, those gaining it, and those showing little or no change. When the species were associated with habitats it was found that Arctic-Alpine/montane heath communities were the most sensitive to climate change, followed by pine woodland and beech woodland in southern England. In lowland heath, wet heath, cereal field margins, coastal grazing marsh, drought-prone acid grassland and calcareous grassland, the species either showed little change or an increase in suitable climate space. The other eight habitats showed a mixed response.
Conclusions: The species show a variety of responses to climate change and thus their current habitat associations may alter. The uncertain future of some species and habitats is highlighted. Conservation policy and practice will need to be revised in the face of climate change.
artificial neural network, bioclimate envelopes, britain, climate change, conservation, habitats, ireland, SPECIES model
1466-822X
453-462
Berry, P.M.
b8005d23-1fd5-493a-8a28-927538ea52ec
Dawson, T.P.
e85a1b83-5770-4fcb-bc16-c09338b40e19
Harrison, P.A.
bb74e43a-4205-47db-947d-8e2531b52497
Pearson, R.G.
394fe6a1-9c88-47cc-b30e-5f563ea1c9aa
Berry, P.M.
b8005d23-1fd5-493a-8a28-927538ea52ec
Dawson, T.P.
e85a1b83-5770-4fcb-bc16-c09338b40e19
Harrison, P.A.
bb74e43a-4205-47db-947d-8e2531b52497
Pearson, R.G.
394fe6a1-9c88-47cc-b30e-5f563ea1c9aa

Berry, P.M., Dawson, T.P., Harrison, P.A. and Pearson, R.G. (2002) Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland. (In Climate Change and Conservation Special Issue). Global Ecology and Biogeography, 11 (6), 453-462. (doi:10.1046/j.1466-822x.2002.00304.x).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Aim: Climate change has the potential to have significant impacts on the distribution of species and on the composition of habitats. This paper identifies the potential changes in the future distribution of species under the UKCIP98 climate change scenarios, in order that such changes can be taken into account in conservation management.
Location: The model was applied to Britain and Ireland.
Methods: A model based on an artificial neural network was used to predict the changing bioclimate envelopes of species in Britain and Ireland. Fifty-four species representing 15 habitats were modelled.
Results: The modelled species could be placed into three categories: those losing suitable climate space, those gaining it, and those showing little or no change. When the species were associated with habitats it was found that Arctic-Alpine/montane heath communities were the most sensitive to climate change, followed by pine woodland and beech woodland in southern England. In lowland heath, wet heath, cereal field margins, coastal grazing marsh, drought-prone acid grassland and calcareous grassland, the species either showed little change or an increase in suitable climate space. The other eight habitats showed a mixed response.
Conclusions: The species show a variety of responses to climate change and thus their current habitat associations may alter. The uncertain future of some species and habitats is highlighted. Conservation policy and practice will need to be revised in the face of climate change.

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Published date: November 2002
Keywords: artificial neural network, bioclimate envelopes, britain, climate change, conservation, habitats, ireland, SPECIES model

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Local EPrints ID: 49227
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/49227
ISSN: 1466-822X
PURE UUID: d7f32855-5457-4533-a6ab-2a72d3781b42

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Date deposited: 25 Oct 2007
Last modified: 14 Jan 2021 19:18

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Author: P.M. Berry
Author: T.P. Dawson
Author: P.A. Harrison
Author: R.G. Pearson

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