Climate Change in Space: The Impact on Space Debris

Abstract

Rising carbon dioxide concentrations are causing cooling and contraction of the thermosphere, reducing the neutral density and therefore the atmospheric drag experienced by space debris. Simulations of the thermosphere under increasing carbon dioxide concentrations have been performed with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model - extended (WACCM-X). These have been used to create a density scaling factor for thermospheric density, which is dependent upon altitude, ground-level carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and solar activity. Results show there has already been a 21% decrease in thermospheric density at 400 km altitude since the year 2000. If global temperatures increase by 1.5◦C at ground level, WACCM-X predicts there will be a 15 - 32% decrease in density at 400 km compared to the year 2000, dependent upon solar activity. Moreover, the reduction in thermospheric density is predicted to continue at faster rates with further increases in the CO2 concentration. The debris environment has been modelled with the new Binned Representative Atmospheric Decay (BRAD) debris model under the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for CO2 concentration. Compared against a control scenario with no density reductions, it is shown that the number of trackable objects by the year 2100 is 40% larger under the low-emissions RCP2.6 scenario and 214% larger in the high-emissions RCP8.5 scenario.

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ORCID for Hugh Lewis: orcid.org/0000-0002-3946-8757

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