Hip fracture projections up to the year 2060: an analysis based on data from the National Hip Fracture Database for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland

Abstract

Introduction: hip fractures are common and cause a huge socioeconomic burden to patients, their carers, and healthcare services worldwide. Our aim was to examine how much hip fracture numbers would be expected to rise over coming decades, simply as a consequence of the ageing of the population.

Methods: we used data from the National Hip Fracture Database on the volume of hip fractures occurring in England, Wales and Northern Ireland in the year 2019 (n = 67,210). We projected future numbers of hip fractures by applying this number, assuming stable rates, to population growth forecast data provided by the Office for National Statistics up to the year 2060.

Results: by 2060, the number of hip fractures occurring in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are projected to increase by 107 % (n = 139,105). In males, there was an estimated increase of 130 % compared with 97 % in females. There was an estimated increase across all age ranges, however the oldest age groups demonstrated the largest relative increases. The estimated increase for those aged 90 years or over was as high as 348 % and 198 % for males and females, respectively.

Conclusion: as a consequence of future ageing of the population, the demand on the health service posed by people with hip fracture is projected to more than double by the year 2060. Policymakers should be striving to mitigate against the huge public health impact of these projections by maximising fracture prevention strategies as far as possible and by improving the quality of hip fracture care.

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Identifiers

ORCID for David J. Culliford: orcid.org/0000-0003-1663-0253

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