Disagreement on the North Atlantic Cold Blob Formation Mechanisms among Climate Models

Abstract

Despite global warming, the sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic has decreased since the 1900s. This local cooling, known as the North Atlantic cold blob, signifies a unique role of the subpolar North Atlantic in uptaking heat and hence impacts downstream weather and climate. However, a lack of observational records and their constraints on climate models leave the North Atlantic cold blob formation mechanism inconclusive. Using simulations from phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we assess the primary processes driving the North Atlantic cold blob within individual models and whether the mechanisms are consistent across models. We show that 11 out of 32 models, which we call “Cold Blob” models, simulate the subpolar North Atlantic cooling over 1900–2014. Further analyzing the heat budget of the subpolar North Atlantic SST shows that models have distinct mechanisms of cold blob formation. While 4 of the 11 Cold Blob models indicate decreased oceanic heat transport convergence (OHTC) as the key mechanism, another four models suggest changes in radiative processes making predominant contributions. The contribution of OHTC and radiative processes is comparable in the remaining three models. Such a model disagreement on the mechanism of cold blob formation may be associated with simulated base-state Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength, which explains 39% of the intermodel spread in the contribution of OHTC to the simulated cold blob. Models with a stronger base-state AMOC suggest a greater role of OHTC, whereas those with a weaker base-state AMOC indicate that radiative processes are more responsible. This model discrepancy suggests that the cold blob formation mechanism diagnosed from single model should be interpreted with caution.

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ORCID for Duo Chan: orcid.org/0000-0002-8573-5115

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