Sex, gender and constitutional attitudes: voting behaviour in the Scottish independence referendum

Belknap, Emilia (2024) Sex, gender and constitutional attitudes: voting behaviour in the Scottish independence referendum. Doctoral Thesis, 365pp.

Record type: Thesis (Doctoral)

Abstract

The complex relationship between sex, gender and voting behaviour is a global research preoccupation. This thesis investigates an under-researched dimension of this relationship, focusing on the dynamics of gender, voting behaviour and constitutional change. The Scottish case is empirically interesting as a range of quantitative voting behaviour surveys has been conducted in Scotland since the 1970s with particularly rich empirical data post-devolution. Sex gaps in constitutional attitudes were a well-known feature of voting behaviour in Scotland before the 2014 independence referendum, which allowed citizens to influence constitutional futures directly. Patterns persisting in voting behaviour surveys from the 1990s indicated that women were less supportive of Scottish independence than men and more likely to be undecided about constitutional change. However, voting behaviour scholars have long grappled with understanding the sex gap and have highlighted the complexity and contingency of voting gaps as particular social and political contexts shape them. Significant gaps in knowledge remain regarding which women and men differ in their constitutional attitudes and to what extent and why. This thesis utilises a feminist mixed-method approach to analyse the perspectives and experiences of voters and powerful actors related to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. This thesis draws on insights from feminist voting behaviour research and argues that to understand women’s political preferences through their voting behaviour; scholars must acknowledge the distinction between sex and gender as well as the heterogeneity of gendered voting groups. This thesis employs a problem-driven feminist methodology by centring the problematic of the sex gaps in constitutional attitudes and designing the methods around the puzzle. This thesis adds to the existing research with refreshed quantitative and new qualitative data collected from a top-down and bottom-up approach. This thesis first builds upon existing research on the sex gaps in constitutional attitudes beginning with its top-down approach to the puzzle. Semi-structured elite background interviews were conducted with critical actors central to the independence campaigns to fill a gap in contextual understanding regarding the perspectives of powerful actors involved in the making and revising constitutional futures. This data also provides critical insights into how campaigns targeted gendered voting groups and subgroups to influence their constitutional attitudes. Then, I take a bottom-up approach from the perspective of Scottish voters. I build upon existing quantitative research on the sex gaps and offer a refreshed collated analysis of sex gap patterns in quantitative Scottish voting behaviour data across various relevant surveys. This analysis traces women’s and men’s constitutional attitudes in Scotland over time, highlighting quantitative patterns amongst voter groups. Following this quantitative data analysis, I continued my bottom-up approach by designing and administering a large-scale quantitative data survey which asked survey participants about their voting behaviour history in support of Scottish independence. The survey was created to gain access to research participants for voter focus groups and interviews. The survey provided access to participants for voter focus groups and interviews and offered rich historical data on their voting behaviour histories in support of constitutional change in Scotland. Voters were placed in gendered groups and subgroups based on their vote choice and other background characteristics such as age, national identity, race, and location. Focus groups and interviews provide insight into the complexity and contingency of gender vote gaps and place them into context. This thesis highlights the importance of lived experiences and identities on constitutional attitudes and demonstrates the heterogeneity of gendered voting groups and subgroups. Through its mixed-method multi-perspective approach, this thesis offers a comprehensive investigation into gendered constitutional attitudes in Scotland by examining both the electorate’s perspective and the perspectives of those in political decision-making positions. This research suggests that when voter heterogeneity is acknowledged, we can better answer the question of which women and men differ in their constitutional attitudes and tease out how political belief systems are constructed and influence voter behaviour. In deepening the understanding of the full complexity of the relationship between sex, gender and voting in the context of constitutional change, the thesis makes wider contributions to both mainstream and feminist political science, offering innovative approaches and evidence to answering big questions around the dynamics of participation, identities, and change.

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