Can robots and migration help address the challenges of ageing? Specification and initial analysis of dynamic model for examining policy resilience

Abstract

Labour shortages are common in developing countries, whether through poor job-skill matching or imbalances originating in the existing labour force. Migration has long been perceived as a possible solution to labour market shortages, but it is also known to be a temporary fix. At the same time, advantages in technology have helped to introduce robots to the production processes, but so far, it has not become a large-scale panacea, partially due to the expense, with some countries lagging behind in automating their industries. Yet another labour shortage challenge is coming from ageing of the population and the labour force -- for some European countries, the associated labour force decline is already very visible. At the same time, ageing generates additional labour demand, particularly in the very labour-intensive health and social care sectors, which are not prone to automation.

This research presents the specification and some initial analysis of a DSGE model that looks at whether migration and automation can address some challenges of ageing. We focus on a case study of a two-country system linked through migration: on the one hand, we look at Germany, as Europe's largest migrant receiving country and leader in automation. On the other hand, we examine the effects of the migration and automation on Poland, which until recently was predominantly a migrant sending country, and which is still lagging significantly in terms of automation behind most of the other EU countries. The DSGE model will ultimately serve as a tool to examine the vulnerability of European socio-economic systems to external shocks.

More information

Identifiers

ORCID for Emily Barker: orcid.org/0000-0003-3368-9169

ORCID for Jakub Bijak: orcid.org/0000-0002-2563-5040

Catalogue record

Export record