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Unequal impact of COVID-19 on excess deaths, life expectancy, and premature mortality in Spanish regions (2020-2021)

Unequal impact of COVID-19 on excess deaths, life expectancy, and premature mortality in Spanish regions (2020-2021)
Unequal impact of COVID-19 on excess deaths, life expectancy, and premature mortality in Spanish regions (2020-2021)

Objective: we aimed to estimate regional inequalities in excess deaths and premature mortality in Spain during 2020 and 2021, before high vaccination coverage against COVID-19. 

Method: with data from the National Institute of Statistics, within each region, sex, and age group, we estimated the excess deaths, the change in life expectancy at birth (e 0) and age 65 (e 65) and years of life lost as the difference between the observed and expected deaths using a time series analysis of 2015-2019 data and life expectancies based on Lee-Carter forecasting using 2010-2019 data. 

Results: from January 2020 to June 2021, an estimated 89,200 (men: 48,000; women: 41,200) excess deaths occurred in Spain with a substantial regional variability (highest in Madrid: 22,000, lowest in Canary Islands: −210). The highest reductions in e 0 in 2020 were observed in Madrid (men −3.58 years, women −2.25), Castile-La Mancha (−2.72, −2.38), and Castile and Leon (−2.13, −1.39). During the first half of 2021, the highest reduction in e 0 was observed in Madrid for men (−2.09; −2.37 to −1.84) and Valencian Community for women (−1.63; −1.97 to −1.3). The highest excess years of life lost in 2020 was in Castile-La Mancha (men: 5370; women: 3600, per 100 000). We observed large differences between reported COVID-19 deaths and estimated excess deaths across the Spanish regions. 

Conclusions: regions performed highly unequally on excess deaths, life expectancy and years of life lost. The investigation of the root causes of these regional inequalities might inform future pandemic policy in Spain and elsewhere.

COVID-19, Excess deaths, Geographic inequalities, Life expectancy, Premature mortality, Spain, Years of life lost
0213-9111
Islam, Nazrul
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López, Fernando J. García
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Jdanov, Dimitri A.
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Royo-Bordonada, Miguel Ángel
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Khunti, Kamlesh
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Lewington, Sarah
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Lacey, Ben
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White, Martin
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Morris, Eva J.A.
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Zunzunegui, María Victoria
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Islam, Nazrul
e5345196-7479-438f-b4f6-c372d2135586
López, Fernando J. García
1b00e9ea-8aa0-4b56-bb41-c9122ed1bdb7
Jdanov, Dimitri A.
f08e8a66-aa82-417b-909a-b93ec497807c
Royo-Bordonada, Miguel Ángel
3823ca34-62d3-4514-89e2-a2f263559526
Khunti, Kamlesh
3e64e5f4-0cc9-4524-aa98-3c74c25101c3
Lewington, Sarah
b47fcba0-25ce-481a-81c6-5b30ea95ae34
Lacey, Ben
38227149-1faa-42d3-bf28-a9345d0c0872
White, Martin
bd733033-deff-4625-b6a5-012af7efc395
Morris, Eva J.A.
fe9c200d-d1f7-498d-82ad-919ebcda5d44
Zunzunegui, María Victoria
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Islam, Nazrul, López, Fernando J. García, Jdanov, Dimitri A., Royo-Bordonada, Miguel Ángel, Khunti, Kamlesh, Lewington, Sarah, Lacey, Ben, White, Martin, Morris, Eva J.A. and Zunzunegui, María Victoria (2024) Unequal impact of COVID-19 on excess deaths, life expectancy, and premature mortality in Spanish regions (2020-2021). Gaceta Sanitaria, 38, [102424]. (doi:10.1016/j.gaceta.2024.102424).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Objective: we aimed to estimate regional inequalities in excess deaths and premature mortality in Spain during 2020 and 2021, before high vaccination coverage against COVID-19. 

Method: with data from the National Institute of Statistics, within each region, sex, and age group, we estimated the excess deaths, the change in life expectancy at birth (e 0) and age 65 (e 65) and years of life lost as the difference between the observed and expected deaths using a time series analysis of 2015-2019 data and life expectancies based on Lee-Carter forecasting using 2010-2019 data. 

Results: from January 2020 to June 2021, an estimated 89,200 (men: 48,000; women: 41,200) excess deaths occurred in Spain with a substantial regional variability (highest in Madrid: 22,000, lowest in Canary Islands: −210). The highest reductions in e 0 in 2020 were observed in Madrid (men −3.58 years, women −2.25), Castile-La Mancha (−2.72, −2.38), and Castile and Leon (−2.13, −1.39). During the first half of 2021, the highest reduction in e 0 was observed in Madrid for men (−2.09; −2.37 to −1.84) and Valencian Community for women (−1.63; −1.97 to −1.3). The highest excess years of life lost in 2020 was in Castile-La Mancha (men: 5370; women: 3600, per 100 000). We observed large differences between reported COVID-19 deaths and estimated excess deaths across the Spanish regions. 

Conclusions: regions performed highly unequally on excess deaths, life expectancy and years of life lost. The investigation of the root causes of these regional inequalities might inform future pandemic policy in Spain and elsewhere.

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Accepted/In Press date: 23 July 2024
e-pub ahead of print date: 4 November 2024
Published date: 4 November 2024
Keywords: COVID-19, Excess deaths, Geographic inequalities, Life expectancy, Premature mortality, Spain, Years of life lost

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 496331
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/496331
ISSN: 0213-9111
PURE UUID: 3db9b7ab-cf54-4923-912f-4fc495ed2718
ORCID for Nazrul Islam: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-3982-4325

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Date deposited: 12 Dec 2024 17:30
Last modified: 13 Dec 2024 03:05

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Contributors

Author: Nazrul Islam ORCID iD
Author: Fernando J. García López
Author: Dimitri A. Jdanov
Author: Miguel Ángel Royo-Bordonada
Author: Kamlesh Khunti
Author: Sarah Lewington
Author: Ben Lacey
Author: Martin White
Author: Eva J.A. Morris
Author: María Victoria Zunzunegui

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