Cycles of susceptibility: immunity debt explains altered infectious disease dynamics post -pandemic

Munro, Alasdair P.S. and House, Thomas (2024) Cycles of susceptibility: immunity debt explains altered infectious disease dynamics post -pandemic. Clinical Infectious Diseases, [ciae493]. (doi:10.1093/cid/ciae493).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The concept of immunity debt is a phenomenon resulting from the suppression of endemic pathogens during the COVID-19 pandemic due to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The reduced circulation of various pathogens during the pandemic, particularly respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), altered typical infectious disease dynamics by reducing levels of population immunity usually acquired through exposure to infection. This concept is demonstrated through post-pandemic resurgence of diseases such as RSV and Group A Streptococcus, and highlights the interplay between reduced pathogen exposure and increased susceptibility in populations. The complexities and non-linear dynamics of seasonal transmission are observed in differences in pathogen resurgence across regions. These issues highlight the importance of comprehensive disease surveillance and public health strategies in mitigating these long-term epidemiological impacts.

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2024-08-23 CID Immunity debt V2 CLEAN - Accepted Manuscript

Restricted to Repository staff only until 22 October 2025.

Available under License University of Southampton Accepted Manuscript Licence.

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