Unlocking the complex patterns of fertility and family formation in Western Europe. An exploration through spatial analysis

Abstract

The thesis explores changes in demographic behaviours altering family life in Europe across two demographic transitions between 1851 and 2011 through a spatial perspective. In doing so, the thesis combines geographical data sources and indicators which have previously not been studied and thereby offers new insights into spatial demographic patterns.
The first empirical analysis examines the spatial distribution of changing marital fertility during the initial phases of the fertility transition in England and Wales from 1851 to 1911 us-ing maps and spatial lag models. The results of spatial lag models suggest that districts with a high prevalence of New Dissenters witnessed an earlier and faster decline in fertility than other districts between 1851 and 1881. Analysing the change in fertility over time helped iden-tify Cornwall and Wales as leading regions in fertility change prior to 1881. After that time, middle-class population and urbanisation are most important in explaining fertility change.
The second empirical analysis identifies associations between the historical fertility decline in the 19th century and subsequent increase in non-marital births in the 20th century through maps and geographically weighted correlation. The study highlights areas with early demographic changes during both transitions. Spatial continuities were detected in the ma-jority of Local Authority Districts, suggesting adoptive behaviour. Spatial patterns of labour force participation patterns among mothers may have triggered early adoption of these new behaviours.
The third empirical chapter explores how non-marital fertility has increased in Germany between 1994 and 2014 and how it is linked to voting behaviour using geographically weighted correlation. The results suggest that associations of non-marital childbearing and its correlates are heterogeneous across space. Non-marital childbearing in Germany can be linked to liberal values, represented by Left party voting behaviour especially in the 1990s. Male unemployment started to gain explanatory power by 2004, reflecting the economic in-stability during the mid-2000s and the subsequent rise in non-marital childbearing. The im-portance of these indicators tends to converge over time.
Overall, the thesis highlights the importance of a long-term perspective to understand re-cent demographic behaviour and suggest that spatial diffusion mechanisms are crucial in changing families in Europe over more than 150 years.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Stephanie Thiehoff: orcid.org/0000-0002-2712-3188

ORCID for Brienna Perelli-Harris: orcid.org/0000-0001-8234-4007

ORCID for Vicky Hosegood: orcid.org/0000-0002-2244-2518

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