Future scenarios for offshore wind (OW) in UK waters: spatial constraints, availability space, and net zero targets

Putuhena, Hugo, White, Dave, Gourvenec, Susan and Sturt, Fraser (2022) Future scenarios for offshore wind (OW) in UK waters: spatial constraints, availability space, and net zero targets. Supergen ORE Hub Annual Assembly 2022, United Kingdom, Oxford, United Kingdom. 28 - 29 Oct 2022. 1 pp .

Abstract

This study estimates that between ~22k-110k km2 extra space will be required for offshore wind (OW) if net zero targets are to be met by 2050. The extent of this area varies depending on if the demand is solely for UK electricity generation or is enhanced by needs for green hydrogen and energy export. These targets need to be met within spatial and environmental constraints. This study presents a new approach to spatial analysis that supplies a quantification of the UK waters’ congestion level of spatial constraints as a tool support this planning. Two different scenarios for OW were derived from a quantitative layer. The first scenario involves OW developments only in areas that are less constrained than locations currently licensed and in use. The second scenario extends to sea regions that are equally crowded as the current OW leased sites. The geospatial models from both scenarios show that after constrained zones are eliminated, up to around half of the remaining available UK sea area needs to be used for future OW. These results highlight the importance of technological advances for floating wind to minimise the barrier to OW development in deep water depth, the need to open up new UK sea region to OW development, and the need for continuity assessment in the environmental impact for future sites.

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Contributors

Author: Hugo Putuhena

Author: Dave White

Author: Susan Gourvenec

Author: Fraser Sturt

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