Iraq the vote: retrospective and prospective foreign policy judgments on candidate choice and casualty tolerance
Iraq the vote: retrospective and prospective foreign policy judgments on candidate choice and casualty tolerance
In this article, we model the effect of foreign policy attitudes on both vote choice and casualty tolerance, using survey data collected during the 2004 election. We show that prospective judgments of the likelihood of success in Iraq and retrospective judgments of whether the war in Iraq was right are significant determinants of both vote choice and casualty tolerance. The prospective judgment of success is key in predicting casualty tolerance, while retrospective judgment of whether the war was right takes precedence in determining vote choice. In addition, there is an important interaction between the two variables, so the effect of one is conditional on the value of the other. We believe this is compelling evidence that foreign policy matters, and that it matters in reasonable ways.
151-174
Gelpi, Christopher
10a55818-ec92-4567-83e4-33ea5f968690
Reifler, Jason
426301a1-f90b-470d-a076-04a9d716c491
Feaver, Peter
9dbe64c6-b12a-46db-834b-8a6dd019c620
Gelpi, Christopher
10a55818-ec92-4567-83e4-33ea5f968690
Reifler, Jason
426301a1-f90b-470d-a076-04a9d716c491
Feaver, Peter
9dbe64c6-b12a-46db-834b-8a6dd019c620
Gelpi, Christopher, Reifler, Jason and Feaver, Peter
(2007)
Iraq the vote: retrospective and prospective foreign policy judgments on candidate choice and casualty tolerance.
Political Behavior, 29, .
(doi:10.1007/s11109-007-9029-6).
Abstract
In this article, we model the effect of foreign policy attitudes on both vote choice and casualty tolerance, using survey data collected during the 2004 election. We show that prospective judgments of the likelihood of success in Iraq and retrospective judgments of whether the war in Iraq was right are significant determinants of both vote choice and casualty tolerance. The prospective judgment of success is key in predicting casualty tolerance, while retrospective judgment of whether the war was right takes precedence in determining vote choice. In addition, there is an important interaction between the two variables, so the effect of one is conditional on the value of the other. We believe this is compelling evidence that foreign policy matters, and that it matters in reasonable ways.
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e-pub ahead of print date: 13 March 2007
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Local EPrints ID: 497178
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/497178
ISSN: 0190-9320
PURE UUID: 720ee67b-a1af-4f7a-aa84-359cbf50e0db
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Date deposited: 15 Jan 2025 17:59
Last modified: 21 Jan 2025 03:15
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Author:
Christopher Gelpi
Author:
Jason Reifler
Author:
Peter Feaver
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