The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Iraq the vote: retrospective and prospective foreign policy judgments on candidate choice and casualty tolerance

Iraq the vote: retrospective and prospective foreign policy judgments on candidate choice and casualty tolerance
Iraq the vote: retrospective and prospective foreign policy judgments on candidate choice and casualty tolerance
In this article, we model the effect of foreign policy attitudes on both vote choice and casualty tolerance, using survey data collected during the 2004 election. We show that prospective judgments of the likelihood of success in Iraq and retrospective judgments of whether the war in Iraq was right are significant determinants of both vote choice and casualty tolerance. The prospective judgment of success is key in predicting casualty tolerance, while retrospective judgment of whether the war was right takes precedence in determining vote choice. In addition, there is an important interaction between the two variables, so the effect of one is conditional on the value of the other. We believe this is compelling evidence that foreign policy matters, and that it matters in reasonable ways.
0190-9320
151-174
Gelpi, Christopher
10a55818-ec92-4567-83e4-33ea5f968690
Reifler, Jason
426301a1-f90b-470d-a076-04a9d716c491
Feaver, Peter
9dbe64c6-b12a-46db-834b-8a6dd019c620
Gelpi, Christopher
10a55818-ec92-4567-83e4-33ea5f968690
Reifler, Jason
426301a1-f90b-470d-a076-04a9d716c491
Feaver, Peter
9dbe64c6-b12a-46db-834b-8a6dd019c620

Gelpi, Christopher, Reifler, Jason and Feaver, Peter (2007) Iraq the vote: retrospective and prospective foreign policy judgments on candidate choice and casualty tolerance. Political Behavior, 29, 151-174. (doi:10.1007/s11109-007-9029-6).

Record type: Article

Abstract

In this article, we model the effect of foreign policy attitudes on both vote choice and casualty tolerance, using survey data collected during the 2004 election. We show that prospective judgments of the likelihood of success in Iraq and retrospective judgments of whether the war in Iraq was right are significant determinants of both vote choice and casualty tolerance. The prospective judgment of success is key in predicting casualty tolerance, while retrospective judgment of whether the war was right takes precedence in determining vote choice. In addition, there is an important interaction between the two variables, so the effect of one is conditional on the value of the other. We believe this is compelling evidence that foreign policy matters, and that it matters in reasonable ways.

This record has no associated files available for download.

More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 13 March 2007

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 497178
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/497178
ISSN: 0190-9320
PURE UUID: 720ee67b-a1af-4f7a-aa84-359cbf50e0db
ORCID for Jason Reifler: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-1116-7346

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 15 Jan 2025 17:59
Last modified: 21 Jan 2025 03:15

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: Christopher Gelpi
Author: Jason Reifler ORCID iD
Author: Peter Feaver

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×