Overconfidence in news judgments is associated with false news susceptibility

Lyons, Benjamin A., Montgomery, Jacob M., Guess, Andrew M., Nyhan, Brendan and Reifler, Jason (2021) Overconfidence in news judgments is associated with false news susceptibility. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118 (23), [e2019527118]. (doi:10.1073/pnas.2019527118).

Abstract

We examine the role of overconfidence in news judgment using two large nationally representative survey samples. First, we show that three in four Americans overestimate their relative ability to distinguish between legitimate and false news headlines; respondents place themselves 22 percentiles higher than warranted on average. This overconfidence is, in turn, correlated with consequential differences in real-world beliefs and behavior. We show that overconfident individuals are more likely to visit untrustworthy websites in behavioral data; to fail to successfully distinguish between true and false claims about current events in survey questions; and to report greater willingness to like or share false content on social media, especially when it is politically congenial. In all, these results paint a worrying picture: The individuals who are least equipped to identify false news content are also the least aware of their own limitations and, therefore, more susceptible to believing it and spreading it further.

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Contributors

Author: Jason Reifler

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