Economic uncertainty and intentions to remain childless: macro-economic worries or individual-level economic uncertainty?

Abstract

England and Wales have experienced a decline in the total fertility rate from 1.94 in 2012 to 1.44 in 2023 (ONS, 2024). Much of the decline is due to reductions in first birth rates at ages below 30 (Berrington et al., 2023). This raises questions about whether those who have not yet had children, especially at younger ages, are still planning to have children, or have experienced a fundamental shift in their intentions to have children. This paper investigates fertility intentions among childless men and women in the UK. We consider whether economic uncertainty is associated with increased intentions to remain childless by examining the responses of participants to questions about their current financial situation, their future financial situation, and their financial situation in the past when they were growing up. Additionally, we examine whether individuals’ worries about macro-economic issues are associated with their fertility intentions. Intentions to have a child decline with age, but even among those aged under 30, around half are either unsure whether they will have a child or intend to remain childless. Taken at face value, these responses suggest a significant increase in intended childlessness as compared with earlier birth cohorts at the same age. Even after controlling for well-established determinants of fertility intentions, economic uncertainty is associated with lower intentions to have a child. In terms of current circumstances, we find that intentions to have a child are lower for those who are economically inactive and those in low-income households. Perceptions of future economic uncertainty are also found to be important with intentions to have a child significantly lower among those who feel that they will be worse off, or much worse off in three years’ time. We also find evidence of the importance of past experiences on fertility intentions. Those who felt that they were doing worse or much worse than their parents were at the same age were significantly less likely to intend to have a child. In contrast to these consistent findings for measures of individual-level uncertainty, we find no evidence in support of the argument that individuals’ fertility behaviour is affected by worries about macro-level concerns such as the economic crisis/rising prices and rising unemployment.

More information

Identifiers

ORCID for Ann Berrington: orcid.org/0000-0002-1683-6668

ORCID for Brienna Perelli-Harris: orcid.org/0000-0001-8234-4007

ORCID for Teresa Mcgowan: orcid.org/0009-0002-9231-3743

Catalogue record

Export record