Ocean, cryosphere and sea level change

Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H.T. and Xiao, C. , et al. (2021) Ocean, cryosphere and sea level change. In, Masson-Delmotte, V.P., Zhai, A., Pirani, S.L. and , et al. (eds.) IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: Working Group 1: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, pp. 1211-1361.

Abstract

This chapter assesses past and projected changes in the ocean, cryosphere and sea level using paleoreconstructions, instrumental observations and model simulations. In the following summary, we update and expand the related assessments from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) and the Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC). This chapter covers major advances since SROCC, including the synthesis of extended and new observations. These advances allow for improved assessment of past change, processes and budgets for the last century, and the use of a hierarchy of models and emulators, which provide improved projections and uncertainty estimates of future change. In addition, the systematic use of model emulators makes our projections of ocean heat content, land ice loss and sea level rise fully consistent with each other and with the assessed equilibrium climate sensitivity and projections of global surface air temperature across the entire report. In this executive summary, uncertainty ranges are reported as very likely ranges and expressed by square brackets, unless otherwise noted.

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