Risk assessment in social infrastructure: consilient digital transformation, knowledge transfer, and project success frameworks in elderly care PPP projects

Abstract

Ongoing demographic transitions and evolving pressures on healthcare systems have heightened the importance of effective risk management in social infrastructure development, particularly in regions experiencing significant growth in elderly populations. In response to these challenges, in this paper we examine the evolution of risk assessment approaches in social infrastructure projects, with a specific focus on elderly care Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs). The research develops a theoretical framework that synthesises five distinct but interconnected theoretical streams, including the evolution of risk assessment, conceptualisation of project success, impacts of digital transformation, mechanisms of knowledge transfer, and methodological innovations in evaluating PPP projects. Through a literature review the study identifies how these dimensions intersect with methodological advances in PPP risk evaluation. The framework emphasises the integration of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods to advance theoretical understanding of risk assessment. Our literature analysis reveals the critical importance of balancing technological innovation with traditional risk assessment approaches whilst maintaining sensitivity to local contexts and stakeholder needs. This research contributes to both theory and practice by advancing understanding of how different risk factors interact within elderly care PPP projects, moving beyond traditional siloed approaches to risk assessment. The paper concludes by highlighting theoretical implications and suggesting directions for future research in social infrastructure development, with particular attention to contexts where demographic shifts are creating demands on elderly care infrastructure.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Nicholas Dacre: orcid.org/0000-0002-9667-9331

ORCID for Hao Dong: orcid.org/0000-0002-3458-4986

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