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More consistent learnt relationships in regression neural networks using Fit to Median Error measure

More consistent learnt relationships in regression neural networks using Fit to Median Error measure
More consistent learnt relationships in regression neural networks using Fit to Median Error measure

Machine learning is increasingly used to optimise complex systems. The quality of this optimisation is dependent on the models having a reasonable physical representation of the system. However, standard error metrics are pointwise, providing a reasonable physical representation only under certain constraints. As an example, data models of ship powering have low errors values, <2%, but fail to consistently approximate the input–output relationships and cannot be used to optimise performance. This paper illustrates that the Fit to Median error measure can be used to assess how well the ground truth is modelled. It provides more consistent learnt relationships and improves the extrapolation accuracy of neural networks. This is illustrated on real-world data used for ship power prediction.

Decarbonisation, Error measures, Generalisation, Ground truth
0952-1976
Parkes, Amy I.
9fbc0481-7bcf-4d15-8474-4df77d4338ef
Sobey, Adam J.
e850606f-aa79-4c99-8682-2cfffda3cd28
Hudson, Dominic A.
3814e08b-1993-4e78-b5a4-2598c40af8e7
Parkes, Amy I.
9fbc0481-7bcf-4d15-8474-4df77d4338ef
Sobey, Adam J.
e850606f-aa79-4c99-8682-2cfffda3cd28
Hudson, Dominic A.
3814e08b-1993-4e78-b5a4-2598c40af8e7

Parkes, Amy I., Sobey, Adam J. and Hudson, Dominic A. (2025) More consistent learnt relationships in regression neural networks using Fit to Median Error measure. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 144, [110113]. (doi:10.1016/j.engappai.2025.110113).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Machine learning is increasingly used to optimise complex systems. The quality of this optimisation is dependent on the models having a reasonable physical representation of the system. However, standard error metrics are pointwise, providing a reasonable physical representation only under certain constraints. As an example, data models of ship powering have low errors values, <2%, but fail to consistently approximate the input–output relationships and cannot be used to optimise performance. This paper illustrates that the Fit to Median error measure can be used to assess how well the ground truth is modelled. It provides more consistent learnt relationships and improves the extrapolation accuracy of neural networks. This is illustrated on real-world data used for ship power prediction.

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Accepted/In Press date: 16 January 2025
e-pub ahead of print date: 28 January 2025
Published date: 28 January 2025
Keywords: Decarbonisation, Error measures, Generalisation, Ground truth

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 498130
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/498130
ISSN: 0952-1976
PURE UUID: be519c2f-f1ae-4e41-afc1-010b3643f9fd
ORCID for Adam J. Sobey: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-6880-8338
ORCID for Dominic A. Hudson: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2012-6255

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 10 Feb 2025 18:02
Last modified: 30 Aug 2025 01:43

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Contributors

Author: Amy I. Parkes
Author: Adam J. Sobey ORCID iD

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