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Mapping seasonal human mobility across Africa using mobile phone location history and geospatial data

Mapping seasonal human mobility across Africa using mobile phone location history and geospatial data
Mapping seasonal human mobility across Africa using mobile phone location history and geospatial data
Seasonal human mobility data are essential for understanding socioeconomic and environmental dynamics, yet much of Africa lacks comprehensive mobility datasets. Human movement, shaped by economic needs, family responsibilities, seasonal climatic variations, and displacements, is poorly documented in many regions due to limitations of traditional methods like censuses and surveys. This study addresses these gaps by leveraging the Google Aggregated Mobility Research Dataset (GAMRD) and a Bayesian spatiotemporal framework to estimate pre-pandemic monthly mobility flows at both national and regional scales across Africa for 2018–2019. We analysed 25 countries with complete GAMRD data and developed regional models to estimate mobility in 28 additional countries with sparse or missing records, filling critical data gaps. Key predictors, including GDP per capita, underweight children, infant mortality, environmental variables like stream runoff and evapotranspiration, and covariate interactions, revealed the complexity of mobility drivers. This approach provides robust estimates of seasonal mobility changes in data-limited areas, and offers a foundational understanding of African mobility dynamics, which highlights the value of innovative modelling and novel sources to bridge data gaps for supporting regional planning and policy-making.
Research Square
Voepel, Hal E.
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Lai, Shengjie
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Steele, Jessica
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Cunningham, Alexander
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Rogers, Grant
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Ruktanonchai, Corrine
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Ruktanonchai, Nick
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Utazi, C.
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Sorichetta, Alessandro
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Tatem, Andrew
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Voepel, Hal E.
7330972a-c61c-4058-b52c-3669fadfcf70
Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
Steele, Jessica
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Cunningham, Alexander
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Rogers, Grant
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Ruktanonchai, Corrine
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Ruktanonchai, Nick
fe68cb8d-3760-4955-99fa-47d43f86580a
Utazi, C.
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Sorichetta, Alessandro
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Tatem, Andrew
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[Unknown type: UNSPECIFIED]

Record type: UNSPECIFIED

Abstract

Seasonal human mobility data are essential for understanding socioeconomic and environmental dynamics, yet much of Africa lacks comprehensive mobility datasets. Human movement, shaped by economic needs, family responsibilities, seasonal climatic variations, and displacements, is poorly documented in many regions due to limitations of traditional methods like censuses and surveys. This study addresses these gaps by leveraging the Google Aggregated Mobility Research Dataset (GAMRD) and a Bayesian spatiotemporal framework to estimate pre-pandemic monthly mobility flows at both national and regional scales across Africa for 2018–2019. We analysed 25 countries with complete GAMRD data and developed regional models to estimate mobility in 28 additional countries with sparse or missing records, filling critical data gaps. Key predictors, including GDP per capita, underweight children, infant mortality, environmental variables like stream runoff and evapotranspiration, and covariate interactions, revealed the complexity of mobility drivers. This approach provides robust estimates of seasonal mobility changes in data-limited areas, and offers a foundational understanding of African mobility dynamics, which highlights the value of innovative modelling and novel sources to bridge data gaps for supporting regional planning and policy-making.

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Published date: 23 January 2025

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 498470
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/498470
PURE UUID: 1467db46-44bd-42f2-a061-92a11058e1f0
ORCID for Hal E. Voepel: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-7375-1460
ORCID for Shengjie Lai: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9781-8148
ORCID for C. Utazi: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-0534-5310
ORCID for Alessandro Sorichetta: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-3576-5826
ORCID for Andrew Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

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Date deposited: 19 Feb 2025 17:57
Last modified: 22 Aug 2025 02:24

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Contributors

Author: Hal E. Voepel ORCID iD
Author: Shengjie Lai ORCID iD
Author: Jessica Steele
Author: Grant Rogers
Author: Corrine Ruktanonchai
Author: Nick Ruktanonchai
Author: C. Utazi ORCID iD
Author: Andrew Tatem ORCID iD

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