A credibility-based criterion for the assessment of futuristic aircraft concepts

Wahler, Nicolas F.M., Radomsky, Lukas, Hanisch, Lucas Vincent, Mallwitz, Regine, Henke, Markus and Elham, Ali (2022) A credibility-based criterion for the assessment of futuristic aircraft concepts. In, 33rd Congress of the International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences, ICAS 2022. International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences, pp. 680-697.

Abstract

Aircraft designs concerning (hybrid-)electric aircraft often have large discrepancies in the underlying assumptions regarding highly influential design parameters. These mostly concern assumptions regarding the predicted performance of the electric energy provider such as batteries and fuel cells, but also for electric motors and other novel airframe technologies. Having these variations makes it difficult to assess the viability of a proposed novel aircraft design. Furthermore, it makes a comparison between aircraft for comparable missions or performance difficult, as differences in the assumed performance of these subsystems can yield a large impact on the overall design feasibility and performance. The aim of this research is to investigate current trends in the market for a range of highly influential design parameter for futuristic (hybrid-)electric aircraft designs and create a forecast for the near future. This will then be used to create a credibility-distribution for performance assumptions that can be applied to a full aircraft design. Using this criterion, the credibility of the futuristic aircraft can be assessed. An exemplary application is shown in this paper on a newly developed hybrid-electric aircraft design.

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