Meridional heat convergence will increase tropical North Atlantic heat content available for hurricane intensification
Meridional heat convergence will increase tropical North Atlantic heat content available for hurricane intensification
Ocean heat content available for hurricane intensification is expected to increase in a warming world. Mechanisms for growth of the Atlantic Warm Pool to 2050 are examined in a high-resolution coupled ocean and atmosphere model with greenhouse gas forcing. The model warm pool increases in depth as well as northern and eastern extent. While net heat flux from the atmosphere remains stable through the forced model run, heat convergence from reduced heat transport by ocean currents drives growth of the warm pool. While atmospheric heat flux and oceanic heat convergence both contribute to anomalous warm water for hurricane development at present, high resolution ocean modelling suggests that, when atmospheric conditions allow for hurricane formation, increased potential for intensification from a warmer ocean will primarily be due to reduced meridional heat transport.
77-95
Harris, Elizabeth
29d2058e-dd68-4f5e-995b-0748ff3ef10c
Dey, Dipanjan
6abca563-f99d-4554-a0b8-945d5621b16b
Marsh, Robert
702c2e7e-ac19-4019-abd9-a8614ab27717
Grist, Jeremy
ffea99af-f811-436f-9bac-5b02ba6dc00f
16 July 2024
Harris, Elizabeth
29d2058e-dd68-4f5e-995b-0748ff3ef10c
Dey, Dipanjan
6abca563-f99d-4554-a0b8-945d5621b16b
Marsh, Robert
702c2e7e-ac19-4019-abd9-a8614ab27717
Grist, Jeremy
ffea99af-f811-436f-9bac-5b02ba6dc00f
Harris, Elizabeth, Dey, Dipanjan, Marsh, Robert and Grist, Jeremy
(2024)
Meridional heat convergence will increase tropical North Atlantic heat content available for hurricane intensification.
In,
Collins, Jennifer, Done, James, Zhu, Yi-Jie and Wilson, Paul
(eds.)
Advances in hurricane risk in a changing climate.
(Hurricane Risk, 3)
1 ed.
Springer Cham, .
(doi:10.1007/978-3-031-63186-3_4).
Record type:
Book Section
Abstract
Ocean heat content available for hurricane intensification is expected to increase in a warming world. Mechanisms for growth of the Atlantic Warm Pool to 2050 are examined in a high-resolution coupled ocean and atmosphere model with greenhouse gas forcing. The model warm pool increases in depth as well as northern and eastern extent. While net heat flux from the atmosphere remains stable through the forced model run, heat convergence from reduced heat transport by ocean currents drives growth of the warm pool. While atmospheric heat flux and oceanic heat convergence both contribute to anomalous warm water for hurricane development at present, high resolution ocean modelling suggests that, when atmospheric conditions allow for hurricane formation, increased potential for intensification from a warmer ocean will primarily be due to reduced meridional heat transport.
Text
Harris_et_al
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Published date: 16 July 2024
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 498779
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/498779
ISSN: 2662-3064
PURE UUID: e53547fd-4c18-4a41-866d-0d22b98d57d6
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Date deposited: 28 Feb 2025 17:30
Last modified: 22 Aug 2025 02:35
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Contributors
Author:
Jeremy Grist
Editor:
Jennifer Collins
Editor:
James Done
Editor:
Yi-Jie Zhu
Editor:
Paul Wilson
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