Calculating modal target epsilons from multiple GMPE models: A case study for Montréal

Elkady, Ahmed and Chouinard, Luc (2012) Calculating modal target epsilons from multiple GMPE models: A case study for Montréal. In The 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (15WCEE). Curran Associates, Inc..

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Abstract

In Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), the target epsilon "εo" represents the departure of the target ground motion, at a specific hazard level, from that predicted by the ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE). Target epsilon values are commonly used in seismic performance evaluations for identifying design events and selecting ground motion records for vulnerability and liquefaction studies. There are few methods for calculating the modal (most likely) target epsilons and values are usually reported at different locations by considering a single GMPE in the seismological model. A single GMPE model provides an independent set of epsilons. For cases where multiple GMPEs are being considered, a method is required to calculate robust weighted modal epsilon values that account for epistemic uncertainty. A method is proposed for calculating target epsilons when multiple GMPE models are being considered. The proposed method, along with other procedures, is demonstrated for the case of Montreal Island.

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