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The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales: a metapopulation model

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales: a metapopulation model
The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales: a metapopulation model
Background: kigh incidence of cases and deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported in prisons worldwide. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of different COVID-19 vaccination strategies in epidemiologically semi-enclosed settings such as prisons, where staff interact regularly with those incarcerated and the wider community.

Methods: we used a metapopulation transmission-dynamic model of a local prison in England and Wales. Two-dose vaccination strategies included no vaccination, vaccination of all individuals who are incarcerated and/or staff, and an age-based approach. Outcomes were quantified in terms of COVID-19-related symptomatic cases, losses in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and deaths.

Results: compared to no vaccination, vaccinating all people living and working in prison reduced cases, QALY loss and deaths over a one-year period by 41%, 32% and 36% respectively. However, if vaccine introduction was delayed until the start of an outbreak, the impact was negligible. Vaccinating individuals who are incarcerated and staff over 50 years old averted one death for every 104 vaccination courses administered. All-staff-only strategies reduced cases by up to 5%. Increasing coverage from 30 to 90% among those who are incarcerated reduced cases by around 30 percentage points.

Conclusions: the impact of vaccination in prison settings was highly dependent on early and rapid vaccine delivery. If administered to both those living and working in prison prior to an outbreak occurring, vaccines could substantially reduce COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality in prison settings.
1471-2458
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CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
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McCarthy, Ciara V., O’Mara, Oscar, van Leeuwen, Edwin, Jit, Mark and Sandmann, Frank , CMMID COVID-19 Working Group (2022) The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales: a metapopulation model. BMC Public Health, 22, [1003]. (doi:10.1186/s12889-022-13219-4).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Background: kigh incidence of cases and deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported in prisons worldwide. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of different COVID-19 vaccination strategies in epidemiologically semi-enclosed settings such as prisons, where staff interact regularly with those incarcerated and the wider community.

Methods: we used a metapopulation transmission-dynamic model of a local prison in England and Wales. Two-dose vaccination strategies included no vaccination, vaccination of all individuals who are incarcerated and/or staff, and an age-based approach. Outcomes were quantified in terms of COVID-19-related symptomatic cases, losses in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and deaths.

Results: compared to no vaccination, vaccinating all people living and working in prison reduced cases, QALY loss and deaths over a one-year period by 41%, 32% and 36% respectively. However, if vaccine introduction was delayed until the start of an outbreak, the impact was negligible. Vaccinating individuals who are incarcerated and staff over 50 years old averted one death for every 104 vaccination courses administered. All-staff-only strategies reduced cases by up to 5%. Increasing coverage from 30 to 90% among those who are incarcerated reduced cases by around 30 percentage points.

Conclusions: the impact of vaccination in prison settings was highly dependent on early and rapid vaccine delivery. If administered to both those living and working in prison prior to an outbreak occurring, vaccines could substantially reduce COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality in prison settings.

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s12889-022-13219-4 - Version of Record
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Accepted/In Press date: 4 April 2022
Published date: 18 May 2022

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 500148
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/500148
DOI: doi:10.1186/s12889-022-13219-4
ISSN: 1471-2458
PURE UUID: 3a6eccd3-0d18-413b-8c14-d8e05546a8a8
ORCID for William Waites: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7759-6805

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Date deposited: 22 Apr 2025 16:30
Last modified: 22 Aug 2025 02:43

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Contributors

Author: Ciara V. McCarthy
Author: Oscar O’Mara
Author: Edwin van Leeuwen
Author: Katharine Sherratt
Author: Kaja Abbas
Author: Kerry Lm Wong
Author: Katherine E. Atkins
Author: Rachel Lowe
Author: Sophie R. Meakin
Author: Nicholas G. Davies
Author: Timothy W. Russell
Author: Kathleen O’Reilly
Author: Stéphane Hué
Author: Emilie Finch
Author: C. Julian Villabona-Arenas
Author: W. John Edmunds
Author: Yalda Jafari
Author: Damien C. Tully
Author: Nikos I. Bosse
Author: Carl A.B. Pearson
Author: David Hodgson
Author: Adam J. Kucharski
Author: Graham Medley
Author: Yang Liu
Author: Simon R. Procter
Author: William Waites ORCID iD
Author: Sam Abbott
Author: Rosanna C. Barnard
Author: Fiona Yueqian Sun
Author: Hamish P. Gibbs
Author: Rosalind M. Eggo
Author: Lloyd A.C. Chapman
Author: Stefan Flasche
Author: Akira Endo
Author: Paul Mee
Author: James D. Munday
Author: Mihaly Koltai
Author: Amy Gimma
Author: Christopher I. Jarvis
Author: Matthew Quaife
Author: Samuel Clifford
Author: Sebastian Funk
Author: Kiesha Prem
Author: Gwenan M. Knight
Author: Rachael Pung
Author: Oliver Brady
Author: Billy J. Quilty
Author: Mark Jit
Author: Frank Sandmann
Corporate Author: CMMID COVID-19 Working Group

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